Alex Smith or Nick Foles:
Who Should Quarterback the Rest of the Season?
As I was watching the game this weekend, I started to wonder what I would write about for my Tuesday article. What was standing out to me as a topic we should discuss?
Some topics that popped into my mind were…
”Why do we seem to get injured in Indy?”
“More replay reviews versus keeping the game moving”
“What is the best way to watch a game – live or on a big screen at home?”
“Road to the playoffs, week by week”
“Why did we trade Knile Davis, the power of Monday Morning Quarterbacking”
However, I think I finally landed on one after reading lots of posts during the game and blogs afterward. The easy one of “Alex Smith or Nick Foles: who should quarterback the rest of the season?” is what I landed on. I love a great quarterback controversy.
What makes these great is how easy they are to get started and how much conversation they generate. I think every fan enjoys talking about them. It can be because they love the current quarterback or think he is a bum. Either way, it is all about the “what ifs”. The quarterback is so critical to success that it creates a passion beyond all other positions.
The quarterbacks in the NFL can carry a team through the playoffs or doom them to Browndom. If we all stop and think for a minute, we can come up with quarterbacks that made their team way better than anything you would expect by evaluating the rest of that team on paper. The opposite is also true. A terrible quarterback can leave a really good team at home for the playoffs.
So, to kick off this QB controversy, let’s start with some stats on the two QBs.
Alex Smith – 2005-2016
Career Stats
127 games played
2,353 completions on 3,833 attempts for a 61.4% rate
25,855 yards passing, with 149 TDs, and 85 INTs, and an 85.1 rating
438 rushing attempts, for 1,966 yards, and 9 TDs
Focusing on the Chief years:
When I look at these stats a few things stand out to me. The Gold highlights show a consistency in regular and postseason, while the Red shows a variation. In the playoffs, Smith seems to get more aggressive on passing and rushing.
Additionally, he averages completing almost 2 out of 3 attempts, throws 3 TDs per INT, and (when he needs to) rushes for over 5 yards per carry.
In the postseason, he averages 2 passing TDs, 42.7 rushing yards, and completes almost 2 out of 3 passes.
Nick Foles – 2012-2016
Career Stats
39 games played
740 completions on 1,230 attempts for a 60.2% rate
8,805 yards passing, with 53 TDs, and 27 INTs, and a 87.3 rating
101 rushing attempts, for 531 yards, and 5 TDs
No records and no playoff games.
When I look at this set of stats, I see a small sample size and a standout year in 2013. Nick hasn’t felt the pressure of postseason yet and even regular season games are limited.
From a statistics standpoint, he is on par with AS11 in Passing Completion Percentage and Rush Yards per Attempt. He exceeds on Passing Yards per Completion. He is trailing Smith on Passing Yards per Game, Passing TDs to INTs, and Quarterback Rating.
Summary
Nick Foles is in the early stages of his career at this point. He hasn’t had a lot of games in the NFL to develop and hasn’t had any postseason games to show how he can perform under pressure. While he shows flashes of being competent signal caller, the body of work is very limited. He also has his ups and downs statistically.
Alex Smith has shown a consistent and sustained level of performance in Kansas City. His passing completion percentage and annual yardage has been climbing. His decision-making is also an improving strength. All of this is continued in his postseason performances, if not slightly better.
Based on the available information for Foles and the last 3+ years for Smith in KC, Smith is a much safer bet as the starter. This is not to say that Foles won’t be better in the long run, but Smith is a known performer.
Why do we like the backups?
It is often said that the most popular player on a team is the backup quarterback. The grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence. This kind of knee jerk reaction to the starting quarterback getting hurt and a backup coming in and performing happens quite often in a season. There are probably a number of reasons a backup can come in and perform, but I think there are two main reason.
One is the obvious; the backup is a great quarterback. I would cite Tom Brady as an example of this one. Drew Bledsoe goes down and Tom comes into the game, the rest is history. Tom Brady was a hidden gem and is, obviously, a talent that will be in the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible.
The second reason would be that the backup quarterback is competent and the opposing defense isn’t prepared for them from a game plan perspective. They come in and use their talents against a defense that is better prepared for the starter. This also finds fault with the opposing coaching staff and defensive talent, or perhaps shows how good the Offensive Coordinator/Head Coach are for the backup. Anyone that can make Matt Cassel look good is incredible. What you see is the weeks following the call from the bench is that the backup can’t perform nearly as well. The opposing teams get tape on them and game plan for them.
So, which one is Nick Foles?
I am still not sure which category Foles falls into. His 2013 season was pretty good, but 2015 (when he played 11 games) wasn’t nearly as good. New team, new OC, new playbook, etc. I get it. That is why I leave the jury out on him.
I am optimistic that Foles can and will perform in a system that he knows and is designed for his skill set. I do think Andy Reid’s system is good for him and his experience from Philadelphia helped him on Sunday. This should continue while he is on the team. However, it doesn’t make any sense to scrap the work that has gone into putting Smith in at quarterback because Foles has a good game against the Indianapolis Colts.
If Smith is out for a few weeks, I think we will get a better glimpse of which category he falls into. Back in Reid’s system, the OC/Playbook/etc. questions fall away. He should be able to perform well here if he is a great (or at least very good) quarterback.
Until such time as he demonstrates continued success, week in and out, it seems we should stick with Alex Smith. He has shown an ability to win year over year. He doesn’t generate the best statistics (although I like the win statistic the most), he has the respect of the team and puts up more Ws than Ls.
All that being said, if Foles continues to develop and perform when called on, he may be the successor to Alex Smith. That is for another article, however.
Until then, there’s The Rub.
