Cheaping Out: Chiefs Future
Cap Casualties and Their
Current Replacements
by Ransom Hawthorne | February 21, 2019
The Kansas City Chiefs need to be all in this year, to get Patrick Mahomes to the Super Bowl. If that means keeping some guys around, making trades, signing “prove-it” contracts, whatever, the Chiefs need to do it. If it means kicking money down the road, the Chiefs need to do it. Next year, on the other hand, is a different matter, with a massive extension in the works for Patrick Mahomes K.C. will have to keep a close eye on their pocket book and pinch pennies, wherever they can. For now, this year, that means planning ahead for the departure of impact players. If the Chiefs don’t address positions in free agency, or the draft, they’ll be forced to cheap out. Here are some of the guys who could be gone, and a look at their bargain bin replacements.
Eric Fisher → Andrew Wylie
If you read my Pre-combine Mock Draft, you already know this is a priority. Suffice it to say, that getting rid of Fisher can save Chiefs about 20m between 2020 and 2021. If the Chiefs were looking to replace him today, the primary candidate would be Andrew Wylie. Wylie performed admirably, on the inside, this year, proving better than Erving, the Chiefs other candidate for LT. Wylie is an excellent athlete and his combine numbers were up there with the best, of the 2017 class at OT. If Wylie can acquit himself well at LT in training camp, K.C. should consider trading Fisher next year. If they have Wylie, and a draft pick, it’s not out of the question to trade Fisher this year but, I’d rather wait a year just to be safe.
Sammy Watkins → Byron Pringle
Replacing Sammie Watkins, on paper, with a WR who has yet to see the field in a regular season game is, disconcerting to say the least. That said, Pringle is a certified deep threat, with some ability to run after the catch. He’s not as explosive as Watkins, but he’s a guy who’ll be able to work his way open, and at least present a viable threat, opposite Tyreek Hill. However, he’s not anywhere near Watkins level.
Daniel Sorensen → Armani Watts
Sorensen has mainly played two roles with the Chiefs: Nickel LB, and Free Safety. In Spagnuolo’s new scheme, there’s no need for the nickel LB, so that just leaves FS. Watts is smaller, and faster than Sorensen, he showed some nice ball skills in college, and should be a significant upgrade in coverage. He’s not going to come downhill on a blitz much, but in Spags’ scheme, that’s not his job. This move could save money and improve performance at the position. Win-win.
Cam Erving → Kahlil McKenzie
Cutting, or trading CamErving next year will free up about $3.2M in cap space. Erving’s contract isn’t horrible, but K.C. has done a good job lately at developing interior OL. Kahlil McKenzie is in just his 2nd year as a Offensive Guard. His technique is going to take some time to develop. That said, let’s not pretend Erving is totally refined himself. With superior physical tools, and no bad habits to break, I think McKenzie can be at least as good as Erving, by next year, with the potential to be an upgrade. Granted, we need to see a progression from McKenzie in training camp but, I’m fairly comfortable projecting him to Chiefs’ LG spot in 2020. Erving, being on a reasonable contract, could turn into a trade asset for GM Brett Veach. If Parker Ehinger could get Chiefs a promising UDFA Cornerback in Charvarius Ward, it’s not too much of a stretch to think that Erving could bring a 4th round pick, or a solid depth piece.
Justin Houston → Breeland Speaks
Replacing a player, of Justin Houston’s caliber with a 2nd round reach, one with limited athleticism, seems less than ideal. However, with the schematic shift to Spagnuolo’s 4-3, Speaks is actually a better fit for SDE while Dee Ford is a better fit at LEO. Houston is good enough to play in a variety of spots, but his best fit, in this scheme, is the SAM, and he’s way too expensive to pencil in there. With declining effort and impact, Houston just isn’t worth the money anymore. Speaks might not generate the same kind of pressure, but he’ll be as good, or better against the run, while making just $1.3M. Provided Ford is retained this year, I think you can actually let Houston go… and not miss him too much.
Eric Berry → Dorian O’Daniel
When you set out to replace Eric Berry, you can’t just grab any old bottom of the roster scrub, to do the job. Berry’s ability to hit, above his weight, cover RBs and TEs, and rush the QB, as a blitzer, are valuable league wide, and are especially essential in Spagnuolo’s scheme. If K.C. is looking to replace him, with someone on the roster, Dorian O’Daniel makes the most sense. He’s fast, fluid and hits with ferocity. Putting DOD at strong safety means finding a new WILL linebacker, but the importance of an impactful box-safety in this scheme can’t be overstated. The Chiefs can save $9.5M, by cutting Berry — next year — or a similar amount by cutting him this year, and designating him as a post-June 1 cut. While O’Daniel can’t come close to Berry’s level of experience, and ability to make adjustments he can at least replicate Berry’s role as a player and be possibly better than Berry himself, at this stage in his career. He’ll make about $900K doing it too.
Dee Ford → Robert McCray
Kansas City has Robert McCray listed at 6’2” 280lbs. At that weight, he’s more of a Strong Side End, like Speaks. If, however, the Chiefs tell him to get his weight down — McCray was 6’1” 266, coming out of college — he’s a potential fit for the LEO spot. McCray is physical enough to set the edge, and flexible enough to turn the corner, as a pass rusher. Don’t expect to make this move without a massive downgrade in pass rush. LEO is about to be the thinnest spot on Chiefs’ roster. K.C. pretty much has to spend a draft pick there, or sign a FA. If they don’t, McCray is the only guy, currently on the roster (besides Houston and Ford), who’s a clear fit for that spot. Relying on UDFAs to rush the pass rusher isn’t a good plan.
There Will Be Cap Casualties
These moves might not be coming till next year, but K.C. absolutely has to start planning now. If they’re not comfortable relying on guys like McCray, McKenzie and Pringle, they better attack at least one of those spots in FA, so they can try to fill the other two in the draft. If the Chiefs choose to hang on to both Ford and Houston, one more year, I’ll understand. Though the cost is great, quality edge rushers are hard to come by, and the cupboard is bare behind these two. I understand most fans want to see some investment at safety, but the depth there is excellent compared to LB, DE and CB. In the end, it all comes down to money. Brett Veach will have to be cheaping out in spots. Let’s hope it’s the right ones. Go Chiefs.
Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne
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