Chiefs: Bumpty Dumpty Sat on a Wall…

Laddie Morse

There has never been a draft like this one.

No, not in terms of the high number of highfalutin prospects who are certain to go in round one. That’s a given. On the other hand, I guess you could utter that sentence above about almost any draft and you’d be accurate. However, this year is unlike any other. Come the think of it, not since the draft of 1983 has a draft class caused such a brouhaha. Also, I’m sorry to tell you, but I do remember that draft, first hand, and while that may give you a hint as to just how long I’ve been on this planet, it’s not something I’d want to discuss. Not when we have so many other relevant matters to get to (0:04).

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It’s not just quarterbacks that will “Bump” good the prospects down to where the Chiefs select, but there are several other positions that are flourishing and thus helpful to K.C..

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Important Facts About This Draft

• Matt Derrick: “The more quarterbacks that go early, the better for the Chiefs.“

• Peter Schrager of GMFB says there will be 10 first round trades. Those trades appear to be an accurate forecast as there were 15 first round trades in last year’s draft.

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• Peter Schrager of GMFB says there will be 6 QBs taken in round one. Furthermore, those QBs will be taken in the first half of round one.

• Matt Miller, NFL Draft Analyst for ESPN, says ten or eleven defensive players will go in the first round. There’s a better than good chance more than 20 prospects chosen in the draft tonight will be Offensive players.

• Matt Lane of KCSN says the Chiefs have been non-aggressive this offseason in Free Agency (with the exception of the Hollywood signing). While he predicts K.C. won’t move up in this draft, Lane said they would have to use next year’s first round pick as trade bate to do so.

• Teams are hesitant to trade with K.C. because of their Championship pedigree.

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Over a Month ago, I wrote a piece about the Bump Method for 2024 called, “Chiefs: The Bump Method on Meth” in which I said:

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“There will be 5 OTs taken by pick #25 listed by DrafTek and CBPSports. There’s just two OGs listed. One in the top 25 by DrafTek and one in the top 32 by CBSSports. I’ll count two. There’s just one TE listed in the top 25 and he’s Brock Bowers listed at #5 by DrafTek and #14 by CBSSports.”

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Things may have gotten even more serious. As it turns out, there may be more than five (5) OTs taken before the Chiefs make their pick at #32: Joe Alt, Taliese Fuaga, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, J.C. Latham, Amarius Mims, and Tyler Guyton (who many have projected to the Chiefs).

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The problem for K.C. is: there is a dramatic fall off in the talent level after those six (6) OTs. That’s not counting Graham Barton — a 6-foot-5, 311 lbs. OC who projects as an IOL — and who PFF.com lists in the top 32.

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The Dirty Half Dozen + 1

Then there’s CBSSports.com who also lists seven (7) WRs going before the Chiefs make their pick at #32. Consequently, if K.C. is really wanting to draft a top level OT, or WR, it appears that they’d have to find a trade partner and make the move up. What is difficult is, many teams are reticent to make a deal with the team that has won the Lombardi Championship the last two years straight (SMILE TURNING UPSIDE DOWN).

While the FA magnet is Patrick Mahomes, he can’t help much when it comes to the draft.

Here’s what Adam Teicher had to predict and say about the Chiefs first pick:

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The Need to Succeed Sneed

Teicher was going to take a defensive player — so it sounds like he had pre-decided to land on a CB — probably because he thought the Chiefs needed to replace L’Jarius Sneed. I’m of the opinion that they don’t. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again… I don’t think the Chiefs know who they’ll be picking yet. They may have it narrowed down to a few prospects, but as far as knowing 100%? No. That’s why I think Teicher may have it wrong when he thinks K.C. needs to take a certain action.

There are other players who will not be on the Chiefs board. Matt Derrick (Derrick is the lead beat writer and publisher of Chiefs Digest), but he spells it out in his visit to Locked on Chiefs (0:27):

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The Bump Method helps us know who the choices might be by bypassing the already projected prospects to be taken, while the others get pushed down to the Chiefs. However, it won’t tell us with 100% certainty who it’s going to be. By visiting several prospect ranking services, I’ve determined who will be drafted prior to pick #32. The Sure-Fire prospects who will get drafted before #32 include:

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BTW, I’ve never seen so many Sure-Fire prospects projected to go in the first round. I’ll be interested to see exactly how it all plays out.

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The Replacements

So, it looks like there will be at least two (2) prospects who will be celebrating their being drafted in round one, prospects who as of this moment, don’t know for sure that they will be drafted in round one. Those not-sure players include:

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There may be more, and there may be less. Since we are not privy to the personal conversations Veach had with the prospects when they have their Formal Visits, it may take years before we find out the nature of those chats. There is no correlation between visits and being drafted so, it’s nearly impossible to determine who will get selected, especially this late in the draft (at #32) even though we have been counting the visits.

Some may be wondering if quarterback Bo Nix can be that 6th QB to be taken in the first round?

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The Beginning or The End

One thing we do know for sure is, QB Caleb Williams is going to be drafted by the Chicago Bears first overall and that’s happening tonight! And… and… we will be finding out who is the newest member of Chiefs Kingdom! Or not.

What do you think? Is there another — better — way to measure the accuracy of the first round picks?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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