Laddie Morse
Predicting the Chiefs First Round Pick
I’m in no way making fun of those who may be addicted to Meth or any other addictive substances. I had a brother who was an addict who dried out long before his passing, so I know it’s no laughing matter. I’m merely pointing out that this year, there are a boatload of players and positions that could bump a very good player down to the Kansas City Chiefs, when they pick at #32. I won’t be covering trades here so the 32nd pick in this draft is where I’m going to be solidifying a choice.
Some may be wondering what the ”Bump Method” is and why I’m referring to it at all? I first wrote of the Bump Method in January of 2020 and said this:
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“I have learned to apply something I think of as… The Bump Method to help me get a handle on who the Chiefs will, or will not, be drafting, position-wise. In the Bump Method of predicting what player, or players, will be available, I look at what positions are loaded near the top of the draft, and then use that to bump other position players down to the Chiefs.”
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The 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit will be one of the wildest affairs ever with at least 4 quarterbacks going in the first round. In fact, four QBs may end up going in the top ten. Here’s Daniel Jeremiah’s expectations from March 15th, more than a month before the draft takes place.
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Four of the first six QBs will go in the top ten says Daniel Jeremiah. NFL Rumors confirms this idea and the top four QBs are:
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• Caleb Williams
• Jayden Daniels
• Drake Maye
• J.J. McCarthy
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While I think that more QBs could go in round one, I’ll stick with these for now. Renner Ranks Podcast believes just one DT will go in the first round — Johnny “Jer’Zhan” Newton — so, if the Chiefs want to get a good DT, assuming he falls to them, they should pick him up early. I count two DTs in Byron Murphy and Johnny Newton. However, K.C. will be drafting the…
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BPA – Best Player Available
K.C. has leveraged themselves into a position in which they don’t have to draft to a specific position. That’s important because the less predictable you are on draft day, the better off you are when dealing with other teams. For instance, if a team believes you will be drafting a CB early, they may try and jump in front of you to draft the CB they think you have singled out. An example of that is: when the Chiefs jumped up to take Trent McDuffie instead of allowing him to be taken by the Buffalo Bills. K.C. traded with the Patriots to go from their own 29th pick to the Pats to get there. The Chiefs traded their 29th pick and their third round and fourth round picks that year to make it happen. Two picks later the Bills took CB Kaiir Elam, a player who has played in just 16 games his first two seasons and started only 8.
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Defensive Ends/Edge Rushers
The consensus at most sites is that four Edge Rushers will be taken in the first round including:
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Bralen Trice is listed so you can see the next Edge rusher in line. Since I’m focusing on the consensus, Trice would not be included. Here DrafTek’s Edge rushing group:
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You can see that Trice is listed as the 116th best overall prospect by DrafTek so he is not listed as a consensus prospect.
For those keeping track at home, that’s 4 QBs and 4 Edge rushers. That gives us 8 prospects being taken before the Chiefs pick at 32. To shorten the process, from now on, I’ll give you just the numbers and not the prospects.
There will be 5 OTs taken by pick #25 listed by DrafTek and CBPSports. There’s just two OGs listed. One in the top 25 by DrafTek and one in the top 32 by CBSSports. I’ll count two. There’s just one TE listed in the top 25 and he’s Brock Bowers listed at #5 by DrafTek and #14 by CBSSports. Four WRs are listed as consensus pass catchers and they are: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brian Thomas.
OLB: in the top 25? – Zero.
ILB: in the top 25? – Zero.
Safety: Cooper DeJean is listed as the 21st best overall pick by DrafTek and CBS Sports lists him as the 41st best. I’ll list one.
CBs: DrafTek lists 4 in the top 25 and CBS Sports lists 5 in the top 26. I’ll stick with 4.
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Review
QBs – 4
DT – 2
Edge – 4
OTs – 5
OGs – 2
TE – 1
WR – 4
Safety – 1
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None of these prospects are Xavier Worthy, the fastest WR at the combine… ever… out of Texas nor Darius Robinson the excellent Edge Rushers from Missouri.
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Totals
Above, I count 23 consensus prospects who will be drafted in the top 25. If for some reason Brett Veach fell in love with one of those prospects, I expect him to trade up for him like he did for Trent McDuffie.
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The 32nd Pick
First round picks — including pick #32 — gives a team the chance to pick up a 5th year option when four years are over. So, if Veach wanted to bring back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CHE), for example, he could have done that some time ago. Not that I want to see that happen, but on the subject of CEH, the team, including Andy Reid love him and it’s a distinct possibility he could return to the team in 2024. While I can see Veach using his pick #32 to move up in the draft, I think it less likely he moves down. With all these consensus prospects being listed high above his drafting position, he may want to strengthen the team by taking a better player than what will be available at pick #32.
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WR, Xavier Worthy
I know a lot of Kingdom fans have been all abuzz over the possibility of the Chiefs choosing Worthy in the coming draft next month. Now that they have the speedy Marquise “Hollywood” Brown on their roster, I think that’s less likely and Kingdom fans should prepare for that. Some fans are digging in even more now that the Chiefs have signed Brown thinking that two speedsters are better than one and Worthy could learn a lot from Brown. That may be true but I wouldn’t get my hopes up (0:10).
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A #1 Wide Receiver
There are not #1WRs that will be there when the Chiefs choose in the Draft. Also, I doubt that Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will ever serve as a #1WR either. Do the Chiefs really need a #1WR? If they have a group of pass catchers who can hold onto the ball, and help them win games… isn’t that all that’s really needed? That’s what I believe K.C. will end up with at the end of this offseason.
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DE, Darius Robinson (DR)
Robinson is ranked the 27th best overall prospect by CBS Sports and the 39th best overall prospect by DrafTek. So, there is the distinct possibility he’ll be available when it comes time for the Chiefs to pick (if they stay put). Robinson is 6-foot-5 and weighs in at 290 lbs.. CJ is 6-6, 310 so DR is nearly the same size. He was a 5th year senior in 2023 and had 14.0 tackles for a loss and 8.5 sacks in 12 games. Excellent numbers. If Veach falls in love with him, we could see him wearing red and gold in the Fall (0:13 – #6 lined up at DE).
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My Prediction
Could it be DE Darius Robinson? That’s as good a guess as any I’ve come across. I like this about Darius Robinson a lot, that he will sometimes line up at Defensive End and sometimes inside at Defensive Tackle. That’s very Spag-a-licious. Could the pick be WR, Xavier Worthy? He’ll never be Tyreek Hill. There’s only one of him… period. It’s a possibility that Veach could take him, but not as likely as far as I’m concerned.
What tools do you use to help you figure out who the Chief might draft?
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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