Chiefs Clouds and Silver Linings:
From Monday Night Football
by Ransom Hawthorne
In the National Football League, winning is the only thing that matters. Regardless of the circumstances of a win, or loss, fans, and analysts, evaluations will tend to be based on what did happen, and not what might have been. As such, praise for the Kansas City Chiefs offense has been free, and widespread, while their defense has been much maligned. Frankly, I don’t think that matches what happened, on the field on Monday. The offense isn’t all rainbows, nor the defense purely pathetic. The Chiefs clouds and silver linings from Monday Night Football abound, on both sides of the ball.
Cloud: Offensive Depth
When the Chiefs made the transition from a more traditional West Coast Offense (WCO), to a Spread offense, influenced by the WCO and Air Raid offenses, there was a trade off. A certain amount of complexity was sacrificed for the sake of simplicity and consistency. Given the talent the Chiefs possess on offense, this has absolutely been the right call. Opposing defenses can generally stop two players, but not three. When Sammy Watkins went down, early in the game, a problem developed. Harris was able to cover Hill 1-on-1, and Denver then doubled Kelce. The Chiefs other receivers struggled to consistently get open. Chris Conley and Demarcus Robinson aren’t bad, but the game against Denver convinced me that, if K.C. is going to make a major trade, this year, it should be for a WR or dynamic TE, not a defensive player. The Chiefs can field a great offense without Sammy Watkins, but to get back to the greatest offense “ever,” the Chiefs need a great #2 WR. Plus, their playoff hopes shouldn’t depend on Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Watkins being 100% healthy, down the stretch. If I’m Brett Veach, that’s where I focus on making an acquisition.
Silver Lining:
Defensive Newcomers Showing Promise
Look the defense was bad on Monday but, to be fair, they also carried the offense for half the game. Perhaps the biggest development though, was the Chiefs getting contributions from some fresh faces. Eric Murray, perhaps fueled by reports that K.C. wanted Earl Thomas, went out and played a great game. His highlight reel interception wasn’t just a good play, it’s one of the main reasons Chiefs were able to stay in the game. A score, on that drive, dooms the comeback effort. Murray wasn’t alone. Chiefs Safety, Armani Watts, notched a crucial sack. Also, Tanoh Kpassagnon played really well after Ford went out with an injury. In fact, Eric Murray had the third highest rating, among Chiefs defenders, with TK posting the 5th highest. In case you were wondered, he graded out better than Justin Houston. Any improvement on defense is going to come from guys like this, so to see it happen late in an important game, and on the road, is a very positive development.
Silver Lining: Game Tape Learning
A lot of attention is paid to Mahomes’ rocket arm and his ability to improvise but… Reid doesn’t take stupid QBs. What’s really behind Mahomes’ success, is a great football mind, and reportedly, a photographic memory. This mental ability has been on display, in game action, but with limited tape of offensive failures, Mahomes hasn’t had much to improve on. This week, Denver threw every trick in their playbook at Mahomes. Creative blitzes overload blitzes, fire zone blitzes and disguised coverages. The things Mahomes will learn, this week, in the film room, will help him take his game up a notch… which hardly seems possible. When Mahomes puts bad stuff on tape, other teams might see a weakness. By the time they try to exploit it, Reid, Kafka, and Mahomes will have already fixed it. Make no mistake, the next time the Chiefs face the Broncos, it’s going to be a very different game. Going forward, expect Mahomes to handle the blitz much better.
Cloud: Run Defense Woes
Early in the season, teams have been forced to pass the ball, a lot, to keep up with Chiefs’ offense, or try to anyway. Denver gave us our first glimpse of a strategy that Chiefs will see a lot more of: running the ball and running the clock, to limit drives. The Chiefs offense is ruthlessly efficient. After running 11 drives in LA, and Pittsburgh, Chiefs ran just 9 in San Francisco and 7 in Denver. The NFL is a game of percentages. The Chiefs rank: 1st in points per drive and, 2nd in drive success rate. The opposing team’s best hope is to limit the number of drives Chiefs have and hope for a statistical anomaly, which gets amplified due to a small sample size. The Chiefs have used this formula to beat Tom Brady. The easiest way to do it is with a heavy dose of the run game. While K.C. has the talent to stop a traditional rushing attack, teams have consistently been able to manipulate them into nickel and dime coverage, leaving plenty of room for RBs to operate. Dorian O’Daniel seems like the easiest solution to this problem, but he continues to log a snap or two, at most, each game. K.C. will have to perform much better, going forward, or one of these close games is going to get away from them.
Silver Lining: Special Teams
Historically, rookie studs, on STs, have turned into future starters for the Chiefs. Steven Nelson, Ron Parker, Chris Conley, DeMarcus Robinson, Daniel Sorenson… all of those guys balled out on STs before they got to see the field as starters. The Chiefs have had excellent STs play this year. Ben Niemann, Armani Watts, and, recently, Charvarius Ward, have been excellent, in that capacity and could provide a boost to the defense late in the season.
As amazing as Monday night football was for the Chiefs, the game also revealed a couple of areas that need work. Expect, Sutton, Veach, and Reid to be hard at work, looking for solutions. In the meantime, though, there’s still plenty to be excited about. Kansas City has a young, elite, rookie QB for the first time in my life and he’s still getting better. Some of the younger defenders finally seem to be coming on and, while Jacksonville is a tough opponent, Mahomes will finally get to play his 2nd home game. I can’t wait to see what happens next, Go Chiefs.
A Bonus Thought
Showtime is a bad nickname. We should call him Louis Armstrong. Gravely voice, master improviser, and of course, his arm… is strong.
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