Chiefs: From the Least Capable Among Us – there is something going on with the Chiefs and it is highlighted by the play of the defensive front four — it works even without Chris Jones. I am able to anticipate that Jones will play but I do not know this for sure.
First Point: Run Defense
This week he is just really doing workouts in practice. Whether or not Jones will be available for the Conference Championship remains a game time announcement. I want him to be playing, but to his full capacity, not just some percentage below… All Out Stone Cold Jones.
There are advantages though, among the crew being employed on the front four. When the season began, I looked at what I viewed to be a total strength at DE with Clark, Okafor, Ogbah and Kpassagnon mixing it up. Since that point in time, two of those players had their season come to an end and Clark suffered mightily with injury and illness. Still, the Chiefs Front Four has played extremely well, even without Chris Jones. Stopping the run is not his strong suit. However it falls to the players in this game inside who will make the difference in putting the strength of the Titan Offense in check.
There are advantages to the Chiefs defense against the run: Derrick Nnadi, Mike Pennel, Khalin Saunders and Xavier Williams played pretty well against the run with Jones out. I was calling “Saunders,” “Nnadi” and “Pennel” during the game against the Texans with focus on the plays they made. Clark? He had a monster game. Williams played well also.What I believe will occur is that the Chiefs defense can counter the ability of Derek Henry to run all over the Chiefs. I am not saying they will hold him to nothing. What I see happening is that Steve Spagnuolo and his group will counter the run game enough that it forces the hands of the Titans and turns them to using the aerial game… which will be their downfall.
It may be true that Derek Henry can gain 100 yards but, that is not enough unless he waltz’s and romps over the Chiefs on his way to a 3 TD performance which allows the Titan play action to work effectively and score TDs and not FGs. I just don’t see that happening.
Indeed, Henry did not have the outstanding games early in the season with only one game with over 100 yards rushing in the first 9 games. What turned the table on their offense performance was when Vrabel went from benching Mariota and starting Tannehill and at the same time opting to go with the ground game. At that point, they became a tough out.
Spagnuolo and company know what needs to be done and they will do it!
The run game will not overcome the Chiefs ability to score — “if”…
- Reid guides his team to a lead – and I believe that is what will happen in this game
- Reid Turns Nasty – this is exactly what I think will happen
- Executed with Violence – Steve Spagnuolo and Brendan Daly will have the appropriate defense scheme, executed with violence, to counter Vrabel’s run game alternative, which he had to implement by benching quarterback Marcus Mariota.
It’s true that with Henry’s strength, the Titan’s will try to run all over the Chiefs. If the Chiefs get in front by 2 scores of some sort, Vrabel may try to stick to the ground to catch up on their next possession. If that fails or if it is a red zone score of only three points, Vrabel will be forced to play catch-up and go to the aerial game — not a Titan’s strong point, nor is Ryan Tannehill the QB to lead such an effort.
Spagnuolo’s defense should be totally focused on stopping Henry (and play-action) and keep putting the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes.
I have mentioned before that my respect for Vrabel as a HC has grown by leaps and bounds over the past 2 seasons. He is a top NFL Head Coach now and this is a tip of the hat to him — one that is well deserved. I expect them to mix in the short passing game to add to a bolstered running of the football. Countering that is the task of the Chiefs defense.
As you can see, I think the Chiefs defense will be a strong counter to what happened back in November.
Derek Henry can be stopped but the Chiefs need to focus on hitting him early, often and the LBs have to seal the holes with hard tackling but they must get the reads to a perfection and cover the RBs and/or Tight Ends with total focus on play action when it is used. The rest of the Chiefs need to gang tackle as they have been doing to ensure that the RBs don’t get into the 2nd level and break loose. The Chiefs have corners and safeties who are not afraid to make tackles.
The Secondary
The question becomes, the reads of the players in the secondary. None of them are shy about making tackles and they have been playing well when defending receivers. Tannehill is not outstandingly mobile so we go with our strength, supporting the run and preventing the Titans from advancing the chains through the air.
Sure, Breeland and Fuller have had down years at the corner and the slot. However, they were part and parcel of the aerial defense play during the Chiefs streak of wins since the Titan game Nov 10 (Week 10). The early season failures seem so distant and the big breakdown for an easy TD v the Texans stands out like a sore thumb.
The Offense
Much has been written about the early part of the season and the fact that the offense didn’t look in sync. Mahomes had two injuries which affected his play and was even part of the reason that the Chiefs lost to the Titans — he just was not as mobile and was hobbled still in his ability to use his feet. It was obvious that he didn’t trust his legs though he had a great game throwing the ball.
Mahomes is not afraid to use his legs now and this showed up as an additional weapon against the Texans (53 rushing yards). Also, the Chiefs have an outstanding bevy of receivers and that includes: TE’s, RBs and the wideouts from Hill to Hardman, to Watkins (who came through big last week), to Robinson to Pringle. I am confident that this group will handle the Titans aerial defense as well as it did the Texans. With the Chiefs dynamic pass game, the Titan linebackers will have their hands full and play action and run plays mixed in should open up the offense on the ground as well as the air.
“If” the Chiefs take the lead early, Vrabel’s crew will have a tremendous problem keeping pace. When I wrote my article last week, I could not anticipate that the Chiefs would play such poor football on both sides of the ball no matter who the opponent was. I was stunned. I was also stunned by the second quarter comeback. What outstanding football they played on both sides of the ball. A complete turn around. Stunned again as a football fan. It shows as an illustration why I am the “poorest of analysts.”
I cannot conceive of another opening by the Chiefs as they had in the first quarter of the game versus Houston. I did write that this was a caveat but could not even dream of how poorly the Chiefs played in the opening quarter. What the Titans were able to do in the 10th game of the season will be difficult to match including scoring more than 30 points. I don’t think they will get that done this week, as the Chiefs defense has been playing solid football since the first half of the season. The Chiefs offense won’t fail against a less than stellar Titan secondary.
Linebackers
This is where the true contest will be. Ragland must be getting proper reads and meeting Henry early and hard. Damien Wilson is the most capable over-all performer at the LB position and his play is going to be crucial. Anthony Hitchens is the most mobile among the threesome so that is how I anticipate it will turn out.
At this point? Ben Niemann may also be a key to the run defense. He was in play 55% of the defense snaps versus the Texans. He is a very good linebacker versus the run, seemingly able to read plays at their very outset. I like what he is doing for the LB group as well as Damien Wilson. Reggie Ragland’s contribution made him the top defender by PFF ranking for the game. If it unfolds the way I see it, then it should fall to how Steve Spagnuolo uses the linebacker mix with Dan Sorensen supporting the run defense from the secondary or hybrid role. Even newcomer Rashad Fenton was involved and he played 50% of the defensive snaps and helping to stop the run on one very memorable play.
Again, getting to Henry early and hard and gang tackling is key to the ability to stop the run. They know that Henry is the Titan Key. How the defense sets are handled by the players will be, in my view, the most crucial aspect of the Chiefs defense against the run.
Special Teams
If there was a fault of Dave Toub’s group it was having Tyreek Hill be the receiver for a punt. That fumble by Hill led to an immediate TD by the Texans. Special Teams also had a breakdown of the blocked punted.
During the rest of the game the Chiefs Special Teams played extremely well. Mecole Hardman’s 58 yard run back was one of the sparks that turned the game around. I expect the play of Special Teams to be part of the reason that the Titans are unable to counter that Strength. It would be nice to forego having to use Dustin Colquitt’s expertise but he is one of the best at punts that pin opposing team deep in their own territory.
Although he missed an extra point kick in the Texan game, Harrison Butker did get the FG points and has been solid all season.
Storms Can Be Countered
The Chiefs failed to win the AFC Championship game following the 2018Â season due to a major foul-up by the now departed 3-4 OLB Dee Ford. It was a heartbreaking loss for the players and the fans. In the game against the Texans, the Chiefs showed a resilience that is typical of the mindset of a Championship Team. That mindset pervaded the game despite the horrid start. The Chiefs set a record for the comeback from more than 20 points down to… win the football game by 20 points. That builds for me, a roster of players, from the least to the most renowned, into a team that will overcome obstacles and win.
The Least Capable Analyst: Me
It is my view that the Chiefs will win the game at Arrowhead. It won’t be a soft game, it will be hard-scrabble, hard hitting, against a team that will do the same… fight for every inch.
It is my view that the Chiefs, player to player, and as a roster, will play with abandon and win a hard fought game 42-20 guided by a group of Coaches that has done a great job this season despite the setbacks, injuries and players who were lost to the season, on the way to this game.
Beyond this Conference Championship? The Chiefs will face the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl… a game that became “The Super Bowl” after the name was coined by Lamar Hunt (or his wife). They have named the AFC Championship trophy, The Lamar Hunt Trophy. For the second year in a row, the Chiefs will play that game on home ground, and this time, the Chiefs will emerge victorious.
Run game, pass game, special teams and defense will put the Kansas City Chiefs back in the biggest game played each year: the Super Bowl.
David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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