Happy Halloween Day!
Is the AFC West title already out of reach for the Chiefs? The simple, and mathematical, answer to this question is: no. The reality may be quite different and we’ll have to wait and see how the next month goes, then we’ll know much more. So, let’s take a look at each AFC West team and their opponents during the month of November.
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The Denver Broncos
The Broncos record is currently 3-and-4 just like the Chiefs. Since K.C. hasn’t played them, there’s no tie breaker assigned yet. Their opponents in the coming month include:
Oct 31 – Hosting WFT
Nov 7 – at DAL
Nov 14 – Host PHI
Nov 21 – BYE
Nov 28 – Host LAC
The Broncos are 4th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 18.1. Only 5 teams average less than 20 points a game allowed and Deven is one of those teams. So, as in recent years, they have a very good defense. The problem for the Broncos is that they only average 20.0 points per game on offense, which ranks them 24th in the league in that category.
If the Broncos only split their games in the next month, that still leaves them with a losing record going into the stretch run and those games include: the Chiefs twice, the Lions, the Bengals, Raiders, and Chargers. Even if they split with the Chiefs and beat the Lions (likely their only sure fire winnable game), their record will still be a losing record. That’s why I’m removing them from AFC West title contention already, even though they currently have an identical record to the Chiefs.
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The Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are leading the division at the moment with a 5-and-2 record and since this week is their BYE week, we won’t learn anything about them today. Their victories have come against the Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins Broncos and Eagles while they’ve lost to: the Chargers and the Bears. Their November opponents are:
Oc 31 – BYE
Nov 7 – at NYG
Nov 14 – Host KCC
Nov 21 – Host CIN
Nov 25 – At DAL (Turkey Day)
Even if the Raiders only split their games in the next month, they’d likely remain the AFC West leaders and would have a 7-and-4 record going into the stretch run. Their stretch run includes games: hosting WFT, at KCC, at CLE, hosting DEN, at IND, and hosting LAC.
The Raiders defense is currently 19th in points allowed per game with 23.7. They have the 10th ranked offense in points scored per game with 25.7. he Raiders will likely be in he AFC divisional race until the end.
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The Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are currently 4-and-2 and just had their BYE week last Sunday. They’ve beaten: the WFT, KCC, LVR, CLE, and lost to: DAL and BAL. Today the Chargers host the Patriots who have been improving despite a 3-and-4 record. They’ll give he Chargers a stiff challenge. The Chargers face these teams over the next month:
Oct 31 – Host NEP
Nov 7 – at PHI
Nov 14 – Host MIN
Nov 21 – Host PIT
Nov 28 – at DEN
If the Chargers lose to the Patriots today, and he Chiefs beat he New York Giants tomorrow night, K.C. would only be a half game back of LAC. However, if both teams finish with identical records, the Chargers would have the tie-breaking advantage, then again, we’ll have to wait and see how the Chiefs handle them in their next game on Dec 16 in Los Angeles. The Chiefs stretch run looks like this: at CIN, host NYG, host KCC, at TEX, host DEN, and at LVR.
The Chargers defense ranks 22nd in the league in points allowed per game giving up 25.0. Their offense is ranked 13th in the NFL scoring 24.7 per game. You can see their problem. If hey can’t outscore their opponents on a consistent basis, they’ll likely fall out of contention for he AFC West crown sooner than you think.
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The Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are currently tied for last in the AFC West with a 3-and-4 record. Their big bugaboo has been turnovers. If they can stop that nasty habit, they can rule their own destinies. They’ve beaten: the Browns, Eagles and the WFT. They’ve lost games to: the Ravens, Chargers, Bills and Titans. You can argue that all of the teams K.C. lost to are AFC title contenders and even though they lost two of those game by 1 and 6 points, they’ve also been blown out by 18 and 24. The Chiefs next month looks like this:
Nov 1 – Host NYG (MNF)
Nov 7 – Host GBP
Nov 14 – at LRV (SNF)
Nov 21 – Host DAL
Nov 28 – BYE
Although the Chiefs ranks 8th in points scored per game with 26.9, their defense ranks 28th with 29.0 points allowed per game. Any time you have allowed more points per game than you have scored points per game, it’s not just a bad omen, it means you’re having a losing season. We will likely be able to tell much more about the Kansas City Chiefs from their next month of play than any other team in he AFC West. The Monday night game is a must-win situation when you take into account the remainder of the month vs: the Packers, the Raiders , and the Cowboys. If K.C. loses on Monday night and heads into their next three games down by two (or more) in the loss column, it may be too steep a hill to climb… to not only get back into the AFC West race, but the AFC race at large.
Mathematically… no… but for all intents and purposes, the Monday Night game against the New York Giants looms so large, it’s like a giant bolder rolling downhill towards them fixing to smash their season.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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