Chiefs Kareem Hunt: A Major Leap Year?

There’s been a lot of excitement and talk about the Kansas City Chiefs offense this season. Most of that talk has centered around the Chiefs revved up passing attack and QB Patrick Mahomes. What may be getting swept under the rug is RB Kareem Hunt making a major leap forward this year… on the ground. 

Let’s roll back the clock ten years, RB Larry Johnson’s career with the Chiefs was winding down and Jamaal Charles, who was drafted in 2008, was trying to get more time on the field. After LJ left in 2009 and JC got his first team shot at RB in 2010… Matt Cassel was having a Pro Bowl season at QB that year… and so Charles turned around and had the best season of his career with 6.4yards-per-carry wise (ypc). If you can see the forest through the trees here in this example: Jamaal Charles had the best year when his QB was having his best year. The sad thing for JC is, he never really got to play with a superior QB or superior offensive line. Otherwise, he could have been a Hall of Fame running back.

Back to Kareem Hunt: it’s clear that when the players around you are doing better, you do better. Let’s take a look at another… perhaps better… parallel example: Marshall Faulk.

Marshall Faulk came into the league in 1994 and played for the Indianapolis Colts for 5 straight seasons before being traded to the St. Louis Rams where he became the key cog in the “Greatest Show on Turf.” In those first five seasons in Indy he averaged 3.8 ypc. That included during his fifth season, and Peyton Manning first, in 1998. Once Faulk was traded to the Rams he played with QB Kurt Warner (1998 MVP and Hall of Famer), WR Torrey Holt, and WR Isaac Bruce… and his yards-per-carry average vaulted up to 5.5 in 1999, 5.4 in 2000 and 5.3 in 2001.

This year, Patrick Mahomes is coming in as a sophomore QB with great expectations, 2x-Pro Bowl WR Tyreek Hill is starting his 3rd season, 3x-Pro Bowl TE Travis Kelce is beginning his 6th year, and 6-foot-1 sure handed WR Sammy Watkins is going into his 5th season… so RB Kareem Hunt projects to have a much improved season even though he’s already led the NFL in rushing in his rookie year.

One key piece of information that stood out when examining Marshall Faulk’s stats was his uptick in receiving yards once he began to play with an elite QB. In his first four years he averaged 474 receiving yards and then when Peyton Manning came along that jumped up to 908 receiving yards. The very next season in St. Louis, yes, Faulk was excellent on the ground with 1,381 rushing yards but, it’s his receiving yards that skyrocketed to 1,048… and it’s that combination which made that his best season ever. 5.5 yards per carry will get you a boat load of first downs.

As many of you are aware, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has stated this offseason that he wants to throw the ball to his RB, Kareem Hunt, more in 2018. Forcing defenses to also cover the Chiefs RBs out of the backfield is going to cause even more pressure on those defenses because they’ll have to make sure they are accounting for every part of the field and I’m not sure it can be done. Here’s what I mean by that.

I was, and am, a huge Alex Smith fan. He grew up 90 miles from where I grew up in California and I’ve followed his career since he went to Utah. He also once signed a cap for me… sealing our bro-mance for life.

The point is… I like the guy so what I’m about to say should not be seen as anti-Alex at all. Smith had holes in his game. Even last year, a year when he made a special point of throwing long, he liked to throw to open receivers as apposed to “throwing them open” like with a back-shoulder fade or just throwing the ball to a location where only his guy could get it, so they could high-point the ball. Another weakness in Alex Smith game was the space outside the numbers: deeper down-and-out patterns to the sideline. I figured that the reason was, “blind-line-of-site” because to make that throw you have to see over the CB many times and it’s a route that many CBs like to jump for the INT (and we all know that Alex liked to minimize his INT’s at all costs). It’s also a pass that must be thrown hard and away to a spot where the WR is “supposed” to be. Another indication that Alex didn’t prefer to throw those kinds of passes is his pass-of-preference: anything over the middle to TE Travis Kelce, a slot receiver, or a RB. That kind of throw is much easier for a QB because it’s right in front of him. The point of mentioning all of this is… it made certain parts of the field more predictable for defenses he faced… and consequently, they’d pay less attention to those areas. They could allocate their manpower to other areas like the middle of the field where Mr. Kelce roamed a good deal of the time… or they could stack the box to stop Kareem Hunt and the running game.

Now, in the 2018 season, all that predictability dwindles significantly.

Patrick Mahomes has shown a propensity for being able to make every throw in the playbook… and more importantly, every throw on the field. A strong arm and a gun-slinger’s mentality will see to that. With players like WR Sammy Watkins, who can run those deep down and out routes outside the numbers (as well as WR Chris Conley but, to a lesser degree) and WR Tyreek Hill who can get behind any CB in the league, it allows the plays where a RB, who is being thrown to in the flat, will be an even more potent passing game contributor.

You can understand why Andy Reid would want to employ such a play more frequently. It forces the defense to stay honest and cover every part of the field. What it may interest you to know is… that Andy Reid made that statement about throwing to his RB more this year… BEFORE they signed WR Sammy Watkins. Did they know they’d be targeting a WR like Watkins… or maybe they already knew something no one else did about Watkins desire to play in KC? Hmm. In any event, having Watkins to throw to, plus throwing to Hunt more out of the backfield, makes the offense nearly unstoppable… if executed properly

That’s just the passing game. While I do believe Kareem Hunt will have more receiving yards in 2018, it’s his ability to run the ball which should dramatically improve because of all that extra passing. By spreading the defense out to cover the deep ball, it means we should see fewer safeties stacking the box, which means more space for Hunt up the middle of the field. Hunt’s jump cut was an unexpected pleasure last year and although we knew about his ability to break tackles in college we didn’t know if that would translate to the NFL. It did. Big time. I expect a serious bounce in his rushing numbers when you calculate less resistance from defenses up the gut.

Bringing in a running back like UDFA Darrel Williams who can bang with the big boys up the middle of the field could be a boon to Kareem Hunt as well. I’d prefer to see that other LSU – RB… what’s his name… oh yeah, Spencer Ware, taking on that role because of his experience and reputation. Plus, a zone blocking scheme like the Chiefs run is only effective when there are actually spaces to run through. When other teams are able to stack the box then it doesn’t matter if you have Jim Brown running the ball for you. The use of one of the Williamses, or Ware, should make Hunt more effective when he’s on the field. Charcandrick West didn’t provide that kind of punch in 2017 and we may have seen the last of him in a Chiefs uniform. He’s been versatile but, he doesn’t fit the “toughness” definition this new GM is using to move the team forward in the playoffs.

I hate to bring this up again [no you don’t… okay, that’s true, I don’t]… ahem, I’ve been saying since Kareem Hunt’s first game that I believe he’ll one day be the best #27 the Chiefs have ever had. Now, I know that includes Larry Johnson, the Chiefs number two all-time leading rusher but, he shows every sign of being that good.

In Conclusion

Although the Chiefs defense still needs work, the offseason plan for the offense was designed and executed to perfection. Would I like to see a stellar LG signed to shore up the offensive line? Yes, I would but, it should not keep new OC Eric Bieniemy, new RB Coach Deland McCullough, and HC Andy Reid from coming up with a number of ways to beat every team they face this year, including ramming the ball down their throats. Legally of course. I find that the mere presence of Eric Bieniemy as the new OC, someone who used to serve as RB coach, a reason why Kareem Hunt should be taking a giant leap forward this year.

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