Chiefs Keeping the Band Together: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly – we just won the Super Bowl and now we have to think about next year!? Can we please just enjoy the moment? It has been 50 years. Give us a break! The answer is no. The new league year starts March 18, the pajama party (The Combine) starts February 24.
2020 has started, the NFL year and the new year, whether you like it or not. There are many questions to be answered. The most important may be: can the Chiefs keep their Super Bowl squad together? So let’s jump in. Shall we?
2020 Cap Facts
For this analysis, Spotrac figures are utilized, because I like their website better than Over the Cap, and the data more easily deciphered.
As of January 27, 2020, Spotrac projects the following:
Note1: Over The Cap projects $200M, but personally I think it hits $202M to $203M
Note2: The league average cap space is $43M, which 20 teams now exceed
The 4 Methods of Cap Management
Godfather Method or “Nothing personal, it’s just business”
This is actually easy to do, because you cut the dollars, and don’t worry about gutting the team, ruining continuity and morale; knowing that between free agency, the draft, UDFA, and re-signing the guys you just cut for fewer dollars, can and will happen. Anyway our mantra is “Next man up” – is it not?
There you have it folks – $49MM is now at your disposal. Bombs away!
Note: Watkins & Okafor were chosen as the least productive players with the most money to save. LDT was chosen because 83.6% of readers think we need to draft a new IOL. Sorenson was chosen to start an uprising. Erving was chosen ‘cause he stepped on Pat’s ankle.
Godfather II Method or “You and your mother”
Veach does it again, cuts the heart out, but remolds the team for 5 more Super Bowl runs.
Ya shot Ma right in the heart, you dirty rat! Yea, but she was worth the $7 mill!
Dentist Method or “This won’t hurt one bit”
Can there be less pain? You just cut the D’s! (Dirty Dan, Doc, the Damien’s, Dustin) Ouch!
There, there. That was only 3 players but also $41MM. Feel better?
Plastic Surgeon Method or “Bigger Please”
A/K/A the “I want more, at a discount” cap management method
Note: Watkins renegotiates adding 2 more years to contract
The offense remains intact (better looking) for less dollars and you still have $38 million to use on other body parts (roster).
Observations
Starting at $19M (today’s baseline) and running all the way up to $57 million, a huge part of this cap equation is absolutely determined by the price on CJ95’s head and the likelihood of signing him. Let CJ walk and we cut less. Sign CJ and we cut more (or get really creative). Pretty simple. The reality is at least 1 team will offer Big Chris a boatload of cash. The next reality is: does Chris want ca$h or does he want SB rings? Expect a comp pick. A tag might work just to get him to 2021, with a tag and trade the lowest probability.
Aside from CJ95, we need about $20 to $25 million to re-sign certain players identified in my last article entitled “Will I come or will I go?” (Editor’s Note: coming soon). So already we need more money and CJ95 is not even a factor yet!
PM2 Factor
The impending $2 billion (not a typo) Mahomes contract was not factored into this analysis mostly because he is under contract for 2020 and in reality 2021, as well. Technically, a new contract does not hit the books until 2022. The new CBA should take effect in 2021, and it would not surprise me if the new cap jumps from $200 million to $220 million conservatively, and possibly $230 million. Once the CBA is done and the new estimated cap is better known, then you sign Mahomes to the record setting contract. Why negotiate a contract with such a huge unknown looming? Or do you know something that public does not?
[Editor’s Note: it’s been suggested that Mahomes request a “percentage contract”… meaning that no matter what the cap will be set at in the future, he would always get a specific percentage of that cap, even when it changes. So, that’s a possibility.]
The X Factor
Clark Hunt sits on the NFL Owner’s Finance Committee which negotiates the CBA. The owners have been tossing numbers around like a baby on crack tossing around rattlers for 2 years now. The CBA basically boils down to this:
We (the owners) share x% of revenues with the players today, and we are willing to share (x% + y%) with you tomorrow. The owners have a dollar range where this might fall. And you know that GM’s know this range as well, except for the few that have no clue whatsoever.
CBA Math
The cap is estimated to increase $350 million overall, $11 million per team, or 6% in 2020. This increase was already baked into the books under the old CBA. Currently the players get 47% of splittable revenues, meaning a $200 million cap per team equals $6.4 billion for the players and another $7.2 billion to the owners.
Let’s say the owners are feeling generous (LMAO) and willing to share 50% vs the current 47%, and splittable revenues increase $750 million. $14.4 billion is split 50/50 with $7.2 billion to the players or $225 million in cap. Given the current popularity of the league, new TV contracts coming due, streaming revenues on the rise, and popularity around the world, neither the 50/50 split nor a $750 million increase is out of the question. If anything the $750 million increase is on the light side. Thus I expect the 2021 cap to raise to $225 million… minimum.
Gangsta Advice
My best advice is to… “fagettaboutit.” Veach has this one boys and girls, and he is dealing with insider information. Veach will give Andy all the tools he needs to win, next year and 5 years from now! Clark wants more than 1 Super Bowl ring to offset the past 50 years of futility. Andy and Pat are going to give us at least 5 rings!
This is the Chiefs…
Decade of Domination!!
Contributing factors:
- Clark is Chair of the Finance Committee.
- Sammy may take a pay cut or sabbatical in 2020 [although he said he won’t take a sabbatical on Monday].
- Excluding CJ95 it would take about $25M to bring back the gang. That is on the high side but guys may cost more than I guessed, so I am sticking with it.
Your thoughts?
Think Abundance
David Perkins — ArrowheadOne
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