Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs or Packers: Who’s It Going To Be?

LadnerMorse November 6, 2021 No Comments Gallery

Laddie Morse

In a year where the unexpected is the expected, the Kansas City Chiefs have been the conductors on this roller coaster trolley ride during the 2021 season. It’s no wonder that we have sports fans and pundits alike, from both sides if the aisle, making disparate choices in this game. Let’s take a look at their reasoning, then I’ll give you mine.

Willie McGinest at NFL.com: Chiefs

Willie McGinest said of this matchup:

“I want to see if Jordan Love is ready. I want to see if he’s capable, of doing everything. If you [Jordan Love] want to be Aaron Rodgers with all the receivers and everything coming back, [if I’m Kansas City] that’s what I want. I’m taking the run game away. I’m loading the box. I know how dangerous Dillon and Aaron Jones is. I want to make this game one dimensional. I want to put all the onus on the quarterback who has not taken all the snaps and who is not used to seeing what we’re about to throw at you.”–Willie McGinest

Willie McGinest is currently a NFL Analyst, was a 3-time Super Bowl Champion and 2-time Pro Bowler. I agree with McGinest here. The goal is to shut down the Packers running game early while the offense hopefully takes advantage of their speed and gets in front. Of course, that seems to be he goal and game plan versus every team, but since most good teams seem to have figured out how to play (beat) the Chiefs, the outcome for this one is very much up in the air.

David Bell at ArrowheadOne: Packers

One of your own, David Bell, has this to say about the contest between the Chiefs and Packers:

“[Jordan] Love should have Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and possibly Marquez Valdes-Scantling as his receivers and the OL has been good even without Bakhtiari who is back practicing. With Jones and Dillon, I think they are going to mount an effective short-quick passing game with mixed in ground attack. Both RBs are solid pass catchers also. Plus, they are playing like contenders with swagger… and the Chiefs are not. Let’s hope I am wrong.”

Pete Sweeney a ArrowheadPride: Chiefs

While I’m hoping David Bell is wrong as well, he makes good points and it shows that the Chiefs D will have their work cut out for them. Pete Sweeney shares the odds:

“The spread between the Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) and Green Bay Packers (+7.5) opened with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites but quickly shifted to the Packers as 1-point favorites despite having to travel to Kansas City. But with Green Bay now set to take on the Chiefs without reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, Kansas City is favored again – and by quite a bit. DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites to win the game at the time of this writing.”

Chiefs remain a 7.5 point favorite on Friday afternoon according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Freddie Boston at Lombardi Ave: Packers

Freddie Boston of Lombardi Ave, FanSided’s Packers website, boasts a Packers win and three surprising predictions as well. Here’s what he has to say and his projections:

“This is no longer just a small sample size. Halfway through the season, the Chiefs still have one of the league’s best offenses when it comes to yards and points. They have arguably the NFL’s top trio of Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. But they are also making far too many mistakes and struggling to find the same consistency as in recent years.

3. Packers force three turnovers

2. Jordan Love impresses, has three total touchdowns

1. Packers win.”

LaDainian Tomlinson at NFL.com: Packers

“AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones really set the tone for that offense… Look for Aaron to get 20-25 touches, look for AJ Dillon to get 15-to-20 carries, and they’re going o play ball control offense, and don’t put Jordan Love in a bad position.”

LaDainian Tomlinson was a star RB in the NFL for 11 seasons. He is the NFL record holder for rushing TDs in a season with 28, breaking the record of Priest Holmes (and Shaun Alexander) of 27. Like McGinest, if he’s right, the Packers should win this game going away. The question is, can the Chiefs defense stop the Packers offense early in the game?

Luke Shen at ClutchPoints: Chiefs

Shen predicts that Patrick Mahomes will snap out of his funk and have multiple TDs with zero INTs, the defense will pick off Jordan Love twice, Travis Kelce will have a 100+ yard receiving game, and that K.C. narrowly escapes on a late field goal.

“The Chiefs are big favorites, but this Green Bay team is resilient and knows how to adapt to personnel changes on their own side. It’s going to be a battle as Jordan Love exceeds expectations, but Harrison Butker will pull through with a long field goal late in the game for a Chiefs victory.”

Zach Kruse at PackersWire: Packers

Kruse is of course going to take the Packers in this one, but he makes some good points to be taken seriously. If Patrick Mahomes continues to be the Patrick Mahomes of 2021, K.C. is in trouble:

“No quarterback has been under pressure on more dropbacks this season than Mahomes, and no quarterback has thrown more interceptions under pressure than Mahomes (five)… He’s willing to throw to covered players downfield while extending plays and inviting pressure… the Packers have won the turnover battle each game during the seven-game win streak… the Chiefs are last in the NFL with 19 turnovers. Getting a few takeaways on Mahomes is one path to an upset win on the road.”

Unless Mahomes returns to his 2018-2020 form, the Chiefs could have a difficult time pulling this one out.

Ben Rolf at ProFooballNetwork: Chiefs

“Losing Aaron Rodgers is an absolute hammer blow for the Packers’ chances in this game. With Rodgers, many predictions would have had the Packers overcoming the Chiefs. However, with Love, that changes the equation significantly in favor of Kansas City. The Packers’ defense has been reasonably strong this season, not allowing more than 22 points since Week 3. That will make it tough for a Chiefs team whose defense has struggled against good offenses this year. After Chiefs fans were left celebrating the saving of their season on Monday night, this could have been a rude awakening. However, with Rodgers not starting for the Packers, the Chiefs have the potential to get a crucial victory.”

Laddie Morse at ArrowheadOne: Chiefs

Packers Matt LaFleur has proven in his 2 1/2 years as HC of the Pack, that he can coach and his record as the team’s head coach over the past three seasons is 33-7, which makes him the most successful head coach in Green Bay Packers history. That’s saying something. What that means for this game is that he should be able to make all the right adjustments, even without his star QB on the field. It might sound like I’m predicting the Packers to win, but hold on one moment. K.C. recognizes a negative early season pattern of losing at halftime and part of their game plan now is to come out swinging from the get-go. Versus the Giants they may have been up 14-to-10, but were down to the Titans, 27-to-0 at the break and down to the WFT 13-to-10, down to Buffalo 24-to-10, and although they were up 24-to-13 to the Eagles, they were also losing at halftime to the Chargers and the Browns.

The Ingram Angle

What that means is, if the Chiefs start fast in this game, they should win. One reason I believe the Chiefs will start fast is the introduction of Melvin Ingram into the lineup for the defense. Why? Human nature. People often want to prove it more to their neighbor, more than they want to prove it to the masses. Not only that, but I think Melvin Ingram can and will make a difference in Steve Spagnuolo’s ability to put pressure on the opposing QB. Spags likes to game plan with pressure and his DBs, as well as LBs, are dependent on hat pressure up front.

Melvin Ingram was a 1st-round pick, has been 3-time Pro Bowl DE and 2-time double-digit sacker so the benefits of Ingram begin with respect. Sure he’s 32 years old now, but he should have fresh legs playing only 608 snaps since the 2019 season. The respect Ingram is owed comes in the attention opposing DCs will give him. Since the Packers run a zone blocking scheme, they’ll often send a double-team his way. If not, Ingram can do damage if left one-on-one. Why? Mainly because the Chiefs have Chris Jones who is one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL. Ingram’s veteran experience to recognize a trap block coming his way, should only aid the DL.

One of the benefits that defensive linemen have in Steve Spagnuolo’s system is the element of surprise. The Chiefs DL can change positions from play to play and thereby confuse the OL’s blocking assignments. The addition of Melvin Ingram only supplements that defensive game plan. The Packers have a relatively young, but top flight, Offensive line. Here’s their lineup, from left to right, with years of experience in parenthesis.

  • LT – Elgton Jenkins (3)
  • LG – Jon Runyan (2)
  • OC – Lucas Patrick (5)
  • RG – Royce Newman (R), R4 Pick
  • RT – Billy Turner (8)

he Packers 30 year old 3-time Pro Bowl Tackle David Bakhtiari has been back at practice this week, but I’d be surprised to see him play as he had and ACL injury December 31st and those types of injuries take awhile to fully recover from.

As SI.com reports, Melvin Ingram: “primarily wins with technique.” That’s great news for Spags and he can fit Ingram in where, and when needed. Once the Chiefs are able to put pressure on Jordan Love, the rest of Spags scheme comes into play which includes better coverage on the Packers ample set of wideouts. Spags should anticipate that the pressure he is able to place on this QB, starting his first NFL game ever, will mean Matt LeFleur is ready to call more screen passes to defeat tha pressure. That means both young LBs, Willie Gay and Nick Bolton– the October NFL Rookie of the Month — will have to be ready for that. With Bolton and Gay on the field, the Chiefs have been getting their best LB play in years, so they should have that covered. If not, that may be the best indicator that the Packers are going to win. If so… that may be he best indicator the Chiefs will win.

The general consensus for this game is that if the Packers can run the ball early and force the Chiefs into mistakes, they’ll have the upper hand the rest of the game. However, the attention being given to that scenario should be replaced with the Chiefs offense doing the exact same thing to them. If Reid can get his running game, and short-quick passing game, going… look out. The Chiefs did exactly that in their first drive last week vs the Giants, but then went away from that approach, as David Bell outlined in his piece: “Chiefs: Strange Brouhaha.” As the Chiefs continue to discipline themselves and stay the course of Andy Reid’s game plan, I see no reason why K.C. can’t fulfill the promise of the spread Pete Sweeney shared of a 7.5 point win… or more.

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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