Strange Brew #1: Anemic Offense
Things remain estranged in Kansas City. The Chiefs move the football up and down the field on offense, but commit errors, and then have to use a field goal to win a game against a hapless N.Y. Giants team. You can say this about the Giants: they try hard, and they tried hard to pull off a win.
At this point, I am not even going to call it an upset if the Chiefs lose. If there is an upset, the “upset” is: the Chiefs do it to themselves.
Josh Gordon’s Missed Moment
Reviewing the game on Tuesday, I came away from the jump pass Mahomes INT on the first drive that dang well should have yielded a TD. Mahomes threw it hard, from a short distance, it glanced off WR Josh Gordon’s hands, hit RB Jerick McKinnon’s helmet, bounced into the air… and ended up being picked off.
Thinking about it well after the fact, I concluded that Mahomes was trying to get Gordon a TD, specifically to boost Gordon’s participation in the offense and give the receiver confidence. Gordon is very new to the Chiefs offense and a TD catch could have been significant.
Chiefs Are Not Utilizing OL Strengths
Reid hasn’t effectively utilized the strength of the players on the offensive line. He seems to have had rocks in his head after the first part of the Giants game and went away from the short-quick passing game. That put the team back in a predictable framework: with the whole NFL now knowing how to defend against the Chiefs aerial attack.
On the other hand (team), Matt LeFleur has definitely proven the efficacy of such and we saw it deployed in the Packers win over the Cardinals. It is also what you should expect to see with second year QB Jordan Love at the helm. That could work for K.C., but Reid refuses to stick to it.
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Strange Brew #2: Aaron Rodgers Fails Tests
Due to NFL Rules, Aaron Rodger, unvaccinated — but was immunized (his word) — for the Covid-19 Virus, will not be the starting QB in the upcoming game. Instead, rookie Jordan Love will get the start. Not only that, QB #3, Kurt Benkert, also was ruled out for the contest, for the same reason as Rodgers. The Packers had to sign Blake Bortles to even have a #2 QB for the game.
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Strange Brew #3: Case of the Short-quick Attack
When the game opened, it appeared that the Chiefs were indeed going to use the ground game and short-quick passing attack to make their way downfield, but that disappeared. This appeared to be a new commitment to take what the defenses were giving up and to avoid trying to force the offense with the usual deeper passes, which NFL defenses have figured out and have been able to stop the potent Chiefs aerial attack.
Of course, here I have to refer back to Strange Brew #1. If the Chiefs got away from the early game plan, HC Andy Reid and OC Eric Bieniemy jointly are where to posit your ire. To be quite truthful, I have not been this frustrated with Andy Reid since he was in Philly. Well, to be truthful, I wasn’t frustrated for myself in regard to Reid, but for my friends who live in the Philly area and are rabid Eagles fans.
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Strange Brew #4 Packers Have a Love In
Due to Strange Brew #2 (Rodgers Fails Tests), a second year QB with no experience — Jordan Love — will be at the helm of the Packer’s offense. Even with Love in, it is a powerful and potent outfit.
Despite having major players missing games — Wide Receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard — the Pack used lesser talents mixed in with veterans to great effect in their last win. On the ground, they pounded to ball time and again with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. This was a great win against the then undefeated Arizona Cardinals. HC Matt LeFleur used the short, quick passing game to great utility and the defense came through in the 2nd half with two picks ending the Cardinal’s drives along with recovering a fumble. he Packers DC Joe Barry was even missing due to Covid-19 Protocol along with the two major WR’s. Their ground game was relied upon even more than the previous week. The Pack was able to use multiple targets presenting Rodgers with a constant stream of success.
After news of Rodgers missing the start against the Chiefs, the betting line swapped ends. The Chiefs are now favored -7.5. I can understand the logic, but if I am a betting man, I am not placing that bet. Now, if Reid mirrored LeFleur’s reversion to traditional Green Bay tactics (which is how I believed that the Chiefs were set up with Mahomes and the short-quick passing game), then I might consider making that wager. As it stands? I am not having any of it. o understand my take more completely, you can refer back to previous articles here a AO: “The One Thing the Chiefs Must Change to Win” and “A Dark Side of the Force Has Descended on Chiefs Kingdom.“
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Strange Brew #5: The Magic Number Wins
Okay. You have followed ArrowheadOne and you have seen the dissatisfaction by several authors who wrote about their frustration with the Chief’s defense. We have also as a group, been highly critical of DC Steve Spagnuolo and the use of player personnel. I am still not happy about the defense, but keep in mind, that in 2018 I used a game’s Magic Number of “20′, upped by 3 due to NFL teams moving to high-powered aerial offenses. Previously, I had used “17” for 2 decades. Here, it was my view that if the Chiefs defense held a team to 17 or under, the Chiefs offense was potent enough to win those games. The Chiefs have won 2 of the last 3 games. In those two wins, they have held the opponent to 17 or under.
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Strange Brew #6: A Defense Capable of Creating a Constant Brouhaha
It’s odd to think that my critique of the defense was valid. I had converted to believe that the move of Chris Jones to the edge would be a success after having first written about it being a mistake. I don’t mind him moving positions, but CJ has been a top player in the league on the interior. During he offseason the Chiefs had added Jarran Reed to the mix and I really felt that this would be a powerful IDL, while positing that Frank Clark would return to form and again be a factor at RDE. Then, the move outside has not been a great success for Chris Jones. Now that the Chiefs made a trade with the Steelers to bring DE Melvin Ingram to the front 4, his addition that will work well for KC.
If it does, Strange Brew #5 (Magic Number Wins) may indeed provide a far more possible than what we have witnessed thus far in 2021 overall.
I am hard-pressed to make predictions this year and the upcoming game itself is a “Strange Brew.” So, please feel free to write in your own pick. I certainly haven’t been able to predict things this year with any degree of astuteness.
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David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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