Laddie Morse
With the 2024 NFL Draft only ten days away, it’s time to look at which teams might be a willing trade partner and which teams would not. While the following chart lists many teams from the AFC in the 20s, when I post a Low probability of them being a trade partner, I have no inside information, but think it must be around a 1% chance that they’d trade with our Chiefs. The NFC teams — on the other hand — look like they’d be much more appealing as a trade partner, especially the Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers.
Even though the Panthers pick at #33, the first pick of the second round, it’s their first pick in this draft (even though they have 7 picks total – #33, #39, #65, #101, #141, #142, and #240). Why the Panthers? Because, having zero first rounds picks at this moment in time, they could be willing to allow K.C. to trade down so they can garner more draft capital. I once did a mock draft where I was able to trade backwards one slot with the Panthers and that gave the Chiefs an extra pick at #101. Any extra picks the Chief can gain in this draft would be a huge boon. Why would a team be interested in a pick #32 at the end of round one? Because teams have the option of a 5th year to a rookie’s contract and that makes pick #32 even more valuable.
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The Bears, who have the first overall selections, also have #9, but the drawback for them is, they only have four total picks in this draft (#1, #9, #75 and #122). However, that doesn’t help K.C. in the first round as I seriously doubt K.C. could come up with enough draft capital to jump all the way from #32 to #9. Even though the Bears’ GM is Ryan Poles, who once worked for K.C., it’s hard to see Poles pulling the trigger on a deal where K.C. would have to give them a King’s ransom just to move up to #9. While the Bears have famously been an easy prediction of QB Caleb Williams going to them at #1, they have great choices for their 9th overall selection so — once again — I doubt K.C. will be able to jump all the way up to #9. Plus, Chicago doesn’t have a good reason to allow K.C to do that.
Now, I can see a team like the Broncos at #12 coming up with enough draft capital to make it worthwhile for Chicago to consider that as a trade possibility, but even then, I think the Bears are staying put and taking the best OT or WR to go with their new QB. Poles will also see to it that the Bears don’t do business with the Broncos… at last he should. The Broncos need a QB and Poles can help to keep them from selecting one in the draft.
Picks #22 through #29 are all NFC teams and each of them may be interested in gaining whatever K.C. has to offer. These seem like the most likely places for K.C. to trade with… if… if… if, K.C. has targeted a positional prospect they feel must be a Kansas City Chief.
The reason I’ve given the San Francisco 49ers a Low to Med rating as a trade partner is because the Chiefs have beaten them twice in the past five years in the Super Bowl. So, why would they want to help a team who has beaten them recently, especially in the biggest game of the year. We know there are some teams who have said no to the Chiefs and since we know that, we can only speculate about who that might be.
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So, I’ve started with all AFC teams and that seems reasonable to me.
In a piece I wrote a couple of days ago called, “Chiefs: The Top 5 Facts to Know About the Draft,” I said:
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“There were approximately 22 teams involved in trades in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. You’d have to be an idiot savant to predict the number of trades this year given the number of Quarterbacks to be taken in the first round….”
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While we can guess about those trades, I’d rather not do that because it seems to be filled with a lot of opportunities to fail. What we can do is respect the fact that there will be trades and that’s going to thrown the whole chart above off it’s rocker. If you are interested in trades, there’s an article written by Cody Benjamin for CBSSports.com called, “Trade up, trade down or stay put in 2024 NFL Draft: The best plan for all 32 teams in the first round” that you may want to check out. He says this about the Chiefs:
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“32. Chiefs — Trade up: All of a sudden, even after Marquise Brown’s arrival, they might need another investment out wide, with Rashee Rice facing legal trouble. There’s also corner, where L’Jarius Sneed’s exit leaves a vacancy opposite Trent McDuffie.“
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With Brett Veach being a GM who likes to trade around the draft, including in the first round, what do you think will happen? Do you think an early trade is in the cards, or not?
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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