Chiefs: The 2019 NFL Draft By the Numbers, Bargain Shopping or Overpaying?
by David Perkins | April 30, 2019
This is Part One of a series I will provide analyzing the 2019 Draft by the numbers – literally by the numbers, by conducting statistical analysis to extract data, so we can agree and argue more effectively with our Kansas City Chiefs football friends. Or for purely entertainment and amusement purposes. You choose!
This analysis utilizes the Big Board compilation I created using 8 draft boards from a variety of sources, filtering players out with less 3 sources using either an adjusted 3 average score or a 4 average score. This generated a modified Big Board consisting of 318 players, which is reasonable given the media boards (CBS, Drafttek, Bleacher Report, and Fanspeak) were cut off at 300.
Players – Underdrafted or Most Value?
The top 10 players under-drafted (meaning those players drafted after their average draft rank) equates to players that fell the most, consists of:
This data tells us that lingering injury questions can greatly damage your draft status (Harmon, Thompson and Anderson). Of interesting note is that 3 players (M Wilson, Thompson and Buggs) are from Alabama, and it is my opinion that Alabama players are nearly always overrated on Big Boards.
AO consensus had Oruwariye as one of top CBs, yet he dropped 105 spots or over 3 rounds! What did teams dislike about him that caused him to drop into the 5th, that no big board knew? Another factoid: Washington, Arizona, and Dallas each had 2 players in the top 10 – so does this mean they were the most patient or simply had draft boards that undervalued players?
Players – Overdrafted or Most Expensive
The top 10 players over-drafted (meaning those players drafted before their average draft rank) equates to players that climbed the most, consists of:
This data tells us that having a difficult to pronounce name improves your draft status (all 10). Of course, this may not be the real reason, but it is the first factor that jumps out! (and it is the most humorous reason). Pittsburgh stretched the most (162 spots to grab Thompson) and Detroit is the only team with 2 overreaches (Tavai and Barton) in the Top 10 (and also plays out later as a Top Over-drafting team).
Players Selected Dead On
33 players were selected with 5 spots of the Perkins Compiled Draft Board (for lack of a better name), with 4 players (Hockenson, Baker, Cominsky, and Pratt) being dead on target. 29 of the 33 were 1st rounders or 11% of the total draft, evidence that 1st rounders (the cream of the crop) are more easily slotted versus your average player.
The deviation from compiled average to actual draft slot breaks down as follows:
As you can see 100 players or 39% of the total are drafted within a range of 25 spots from the compiled average, give or take (plus or minus). That represents a decent average.
Chiefs – Over/Under Drafted
The Chiefs had 4 players (Hardman, Thornhill, Saunders and Darwin Thompson) that made the Perkins Compiled Draft Board. Their selections were tight (close to) their respective average draft position.
As you can see Thornhill is our “steal of the draft” selected 24 positions AFTER his average ranking, and Hardman is our “reach of the draft” selected 30 position BEFORE his average ranking. In other words, of our 4 qualifying players, we drafted them when we should have. As you have probably already heard, the Jets were trying to trade up and grab Hardman, so our move to take him early is justified.
Chiefs – Over/Under Comparative
How did the Chiefs compare to the rest of the NFL? Great question.
This table tells you the Chiefs had an Over/Under Average of 2, meaning of the 4 qualifying players, the Chiefs overpaid (over-drafted) by a net of 2 slots. I would say that is pretty good considering last year we almost strung Veach up solely because he over-drafted Breeland Speaks (yet he hit on Nnadi and stole O’Daniel).
The Falcons overpaid (over-drafted) by an average of 39 slots (or 1 entire round). This can only be explained as the “Scott Pioli Effect”, who never saw a player he did not over-draft or over-pay by $61 million. San Diego also over-paid or (drafted too early) by an entire round. Washington Chicago and Arizona win the Patience Award or “Geez, We Just Got Lucky Award”) grabbing players that fell the most. Or the flip side of this coin is, why did they draft so many players other teams apparently did not want? Hmmm….
Oh well, there you go. The 2019 Draft by certain numbers. Feel free to draw your own conclusions and share! More to come later!
David Perkins — ArrowheadOne
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