David Bell
Most Chiefs followers see the WR Group as a liability in the current season’s outlook. There are enough WR Fails to go around for 2023’s group. There has been sunlight shined on Rashee Rice and possibly we will see Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman make major contributions right away… the rest of the way. However, the outlook for 2023 remains a highly mixed bag of results. To fix the shortfall, a draft pick in 2024 is necessary.
Some of the problem lies with the OL penalties that stymie some successful plays. It’s a team game. To succeed, the “Team” must stop causing self-inflicted wounds. This is true of the WR group specifically, the personnel used, and play-calling by Andy Reid!
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The WR Crew: The Outlook
Targets of success have been disappointing, to say the least. Looking at 2024, it is almost assured that Brett Veach will use one of the first two draft picks to add a quality Wide Receiver. Keep in mind that the Chiefs will likely make an OT draft selection with one of the first two picks. There are some caveats in the overall view of 2024. Right now, there are 36 players under contract next year. Veach has just over $50M in available cap space. However, some key players need to be retained and that is going to dent the available monies: Chris Jones, Willie Gay, Drue Tranquill, and L’Jarius Sneed are all examples. I would like to ensure that all 4 players return in 2024 — and beyond — but that is a topic for a separate article.
I will make some assumptions about players in the process of examining the WR Crew.
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Rashee Rice: Surpassing Expectations
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Rice Reception – Photo by Denny Medley USA Today Sports
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Rashee Rice, in the past two games, has caught 16 passes. Thus far he has 52 receptions, 5 TDs, and 591 Yards. Earlier this year, I projected he would exceed 800 yards and it appears to me the table has been set for him to accomplish that. Rice was the Chiefs 2nd round pick in 2023 — the 55th pick overall — so his numbers constitute a major contribution from a Rookie WR. Compare that to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s numbers in 2022, which were 78 Catches for 933 yards and 3 TDs and that was generally viewed a a successful campaign. Note: I had wanted to retain JSS, but that didn’t happen.
The growing trust of Patrick Mahomes to target Rice is significantly important. It appears Rice will continue to develop as the season nears its end. I anticipate even greater success for Rice in 2024 and he is under his rookie contract through 2026. He takes the pressure off of TE Travis Kelce and other WRs.
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2022’s Second-Round Pick Skyy Moore: WR Fail
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Moore – Chiefs Game Photo
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I was expecting more from Skyy Moore in his second season as a Chief. The results have caused me great disappointment. Moore’s stats so far in 2023 are: 21 Receptions, 244 Yards, and 1 TD. He should be double that at the very least. Whatever connection that should have developed with PM II… it is missing. Perhaps we will see significant improvement in the remaining games of 2023. Having spent time with Patrick in Texas before the season both last year — his rookie year — and this year as well, I had hoped we would see more production. It hasn’t happened –> yet.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling: WR Fail
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This is a photo of the drop by MVS vs. Eagles — I am still PO’d about this one! – Jamie Squire Photo
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In 2023, MVS cap hit is $11M. In 2024, his last year under contract is $14M. He does provide value because he stretches the field and draws coverage over the top, usually a safety. The bad news is that MVS has only 17 catches, 273 yards, and 1 TD. That’s pretty slim pickins in 12 games for a veteran WR. He also had a crucial drop that could have resulted in the Chiefs pulling within 2 points of the Packers and a two-point conversion could have tied the game and sent it to OT. His cap number in 2023 is $11M and at this point, each reception is nearly $650K or $11M per TD. He also has a huge drop that probably cost the Chiefs the game vs. the Eagles (0:40).
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If I were a DC facing the Chiefs, I would let him loose and cover him with one DB and then focus on all the other targets and specifically focus on Rice and Kelce. Of course, I have some close advisory on Valdes-Scantling as my son is a Cheese Head. He informed me when MVS was signed that we would witness the lack of production for ourselves. We have. My take on 2024? The dead-money hit is $2M, if he is cut before June 1st. To Mr. Brett Veach? Do it! Don’t waste a 3rd season on MVS!
Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman — re-acquired — can stretch the field for Nagy’s offense, or a new player in 2024.
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Justin Watson, Mid-Range, a Middling Grade
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The thing that bothers me about Watson has been his glaring drops. They come to attention because they are big play misses. These are unfortunate results. Watson does appear to have a solid rapport with Patrick Mahomes. So far in 2023, Watson has recorded 20 receptions, 336 yards, and 2 TDs which are not bad numbers for the #4 WR. Watson is getting a significant number of snaps per game such as last week when he had 41.
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Team 40 Yard Dash Times
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• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4.37)
• Kadarius Toney (4.39)
• Skyy Moore (4.41)
• Mecole Hardman (4.33)
• Justin Watson (4.42)
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Hardman had a faster 40 time than Watson coming out of the Combine or Pro Days. We know that Patrick Mahomes has a great appreciation for Watson, who worked with Mahomes in Texas after joining the Chiefs. Patrick observed while speaking with Veach,
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“I was, like, ‘Wait, how fast is this guy?’ He was
running so fast that I was late on my throws.
That dude, can roll.”
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In the Kansas City Star, Vahe Gregorian wrote an article early in pre-season camp, titled “Very important player’: Under-the-radar Chiefs WR might hear his number called often” Here’s a quote from the Gregorian piece:
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“He [Watson] was on the receiving end of Mahomes’ longest connection of the season [in 2022], good for 67 yards in the regular-season finale at Las Vegas, and he had two catches for 18 yards in the 38-35 Super Bowl victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
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I still have high hopes that Watson’s stats will exceed 600 yards this year.
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Mecole Hardman Returns to the Chiefs
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Hardman on the loose – Chiefs Photo credit
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If you look at the speed of Chiefs WRs, Hardman’s return to the Chiefs brings back his 4.33 40-yard time. I am going to recall for you a 40-yard competition with Tyreek Hill who is faster, but only by less than a step. Because Hill had legal issues that might have affected Hill’s availability, Brett Veach drafted Hardman in round 2, pick #24, and that had mostly to do with Hill’s potential legal problems. At the time Hardman entered the NFL, it was noted by an AFC WR Coach:
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“He can go! He didn’t play receiver in high school and
came in as a defensive back, so we haven’t even seen
what he’s going to be able to do once he learns his
position.”
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Not only did the Chiefs allow Tyreek Hill to seek greener pastures and that resulted in a huge trade with the Dolphins which resulted in many players coming to the Chiefs, but K.C. allowed Hardman to slip into free agency, and both the speedsters were gone. Until… they were able to get Hardman back in a trade.
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Brett Veach felt that bringing Hardman back to the Chiefs would be important. I propose it was done looking down the road at 2024 and beyond. Hardman possesses game-breaking speed and he will bolster the Chiefs’ wide receiver corps with over-the-top speed. He also is a threat in the ground game as we have seen with plays like the Jet Sweep. Reid needs to get Hardman more snaps and use that 4.33 speed. Save for one (1) reception with the Jets, Hardman was not used by N.Y.. His career NFL numbers are 160 receptions, 2,135 Yards, and 16 TDs.
At present, you can see that Hardman and Watson provide the over-the-top speed needed to occupy the back end of a defense. See my conjecture about Valdes-Scantling above. The pairing of Watson and Hardman in 2024, as I think MVS will not be back for another season, after all, Veach used two future draft picks to bring him back “home” but did not ante up what the Jets offered.
We go from October 18th with Hardman. Hopefully, Mecole will ascend beyond the raw player he was early in his career. Besides this, Patrick Mahomes is familiar with Hardman and vice versa. Andy Reid needs to boost Hardman’s participation and should do so quickly.
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Kadarius Toney: “Promise,” the Rest of the Way
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19 fields pass from PMII – Denny Medley photo credit (US Today Sports)
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When Toney was acquired in a trade by Brett Veach, I cheered the move. I still have a very positive outlook for Toney as a Mahomes target. The problem that Toney has had is an availability problem — injury-related — and from all that I can see, he is beyond that. it’s up to Andy Reid and Matt Nagy to get him more targets.
Laddie says, “KT has the best juke move this side of Barry Sanders.” With the ball in his hands, Toney is a dangerous weapon. Toney, like Richie James below, has Dave Toub’s attention for Special Teams. At the same time, we have seen here in K.C. that he has great feet as a receiver. I want to see Toney take on more of a role as a receiver. In his limited use, Toney has 2 TDs on passes from Mahomes and 1 Rushing TD to boot. He also had a big punt return in a playoff game and the Super Bowl. Let’s see him more involved in the offense. Do it Andy Reid.
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Richie James: A Solid Solution
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KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 7: Richie James #17 of the Kansas City Chiefs returns a punt during
an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
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As long as punt returns are covered, I’d prefer to see James become a tool for the aerial attack. In all the games we have viewed, James has contributed mightily and he has made big plays. It’s my opinion that James should get a lot more snaps. With the Jets, he had 70 targets and good numbers as a WR. He is in his 5th season so he’s an experienced vet and has a knack for finding a hole in the coverage plus he runs good routes. Andy Reid? Use him!
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That’s It: My Take on the WR Group
Needless to say, I am not a happy camper in regards to the Chiefs WR Crew. My largest disappointments are brought to the fore by both MVS and Moore.
Here is an example where I did a film study on Cornell Powell’s college games and I believed at the time, that Powell would become a solid NFL WR. Thus far he has not lived up to my forecast of what he would do. The group has, overall, underperformed. That is the fact that we all cannot get around.
So… now, I remain positive about what the WRs can do — run the correct routes and don’t do stupid stuff. Much important work remains to be done to get back to the Super Bowl. We know Patrick has been working overtime with the WRs this week.
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I am virtually certain that Brett Veach has important decisions to make, such as to determine which veterans to retain in 2024 — players who are already in their contract year. Then the draft! The Chiefs only have 5 picks in 2024 at this point and it looks to me as the first two of those picks will be used for an OT and a WR. For those who hae been wondering about Justin Ross:
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Although Ross will be back with the team on Monday, 2024 is a different situation. If the Chiefs decide to bring him back next season he should weigh heavily into their plans. Overall, I am not as pessimistic as some appear to be about our WR room. At 8-4, the Chiefs are on the cusp of another playoff run and as I finish this piece, it is Red Friday! Go Chiefs!
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David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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