Laddie Morse
It’s hard not to notice all the places the NFL is now advertising as places you can watch the game. Here’s the list from above:
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However, I was surprised to find out that there are more places than these to watch a LIVE STREAM of the game. Here’s a listing from the LA Times:
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Isn’t it wonderful to be in the Super Bowl again, for the fourth time in five seasons? It’s amazing when you think about it. The AFC is being represented by one team, our team from Kansas City. If we have to be “Villains” then so be it. I was watching a Rich Eisen segment recently and they were asking each of their talk jockeys to weigh in on the question: what is the one deciding factor in this game? I have a take on that, so that’s where we’ll begin.
Deciding Factor
The essential question is: which team will allow the other team to run the ball most effectively? While the 49ers have allowed 427 yards rushing over their last three games — including two playoffs games against the Packers (136) and Lions (182) — and rank 18th, the Chiefs have allowed 339 yards — MIA (76), Bills (182), Ravens (81) — and rank 8th. With K.C. playing the run initially, they should be able to stop RB Christian McCaffrey often enough to get out in front early. If the Chiefs can control the 49ers ground game, it falls to QB Brock Purdy to make the necessary plays with his arm and with his feet moving in the pocket and running from the pocket. While I trust Patrick Mahomes to do that, Purdy is not as capable. If K.C. allows the 49ers to rush for 182 yards — like they allowed against the Bills — they will likely lose. The question becomes: what’s more likely, that SF allows the Chiefs to run wild or the Chiefs allow the 49ers to run wild?
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Wear and Tear
49ers RB, Christian McCaffrey has played in 16 games this season while Isiah Pacheco has appeared in 14 games. While McCaffrey doesn’t appear to be worn out Pacheco has a lot less miles on his game wheels. Mike Martz — ex-St. Louis HC and former OC — said you’ve got to run right at Nick Bosa and Chase Young. Martz also said the 49ers discipline on defense is not as good as their numbers suggest. He said that Rice, Pacheco and Kelce have got to get the ball all the time. Martz indicated that if the 49ers are going to stay in zone, like they have, then Kelce will excel. He said nobody has a better feel for the soft spots in a zone than Kelce does.
Both corners for the 49ers have struggled with the double-moves so expect Rashee Rice and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson to do just that and we’ll see some long ball throws from Mahomes consequently. Also, from RotoWire, Isiah Pacheco averaged in 2023, 64.3 yards per game after contact while Christian MCCaffrey averaged 57.4.
Let’s not get confused here, Christian McCaffrey is probably the best running back in the NFL this year. So, the Chiefs defense has their work cut out for them. There is not much to be learned from a look back this year at the two team’s strength of schedules. The Chiefs faced teams with a .502 percentage while the 49ers faced teams with a .505 percentage. However, you could say the difference in these two teams comes from their last five games as the 49ers faced the Ravens (13-4), Commanders (4-13), Rams (10-7), and the Packers (9-8) and Lions (12-5) in he playoffs, while K.C. faced the Bengals (9-8), Chargers (5-12), then the Dolphins (11-6), Bills (11-6) and Ravens (13-4) in the playoffs.
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The Kelce Factor
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PFF Stats
I’m not so sure about what all this means, but here are some stats from PFF:
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What does pop out at me is the difference in the percentage of times the Chiefs pass the ball (67%) compared to the percentage of times the 49ers pass the ball (55%). I would expect that to hold up in this game unless one team gets out to a large lead early.
Defense Wins Championships?
The 49ers are favored in this game, but should they be?
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The Use of 13 Personnel
The 49ers haven’t faced very many teams who excel with the “13 Personnel Package.” Here’s Greg Cosell talking about that very issue (2:44):
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Referee Team Assignment
Bill Vinovich and a team of referees, will be the referees for Super Bowl LVIII. Vinovich has been an NFL official for the last 18 seasons.
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If the Chiefs win, I’d expect to hear a lot of “the game was fixed” comments on Twitter.
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Vegas Weather
This weather report is for those entering the stadium because Allegiant Stadium is a dome. Mahomes has a history playing inside of domes:
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IOW, Mahomes averages more than 302 yards passing per game when playing in a Domed stadium. We’ll hope that trend holds true because, the more important stats is that he’s never lost in a Dome.
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Injury Reports
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Looks like Joe Thuney is OUT for this game.
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Billy Walters: For the Bettors
The famous bettor, Billy Walters, is making his last bet ever… on the Chiefs.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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