Chiefs: What is Dee Ford Worth?
by David Perkins | March 12, 2019
Chiefs: What is Dee Ford Worth? Now that is a $15.443 million question. Why? Because that is what he costs the Chiefs today against the 2019 salary cap. I am pretty sure not a one of us wants to keep him, if only for the reason he does not fit the new 43 Steve Spagnuolo scheme. Although Spags says more teams run from nickel and dime packages versus their base package. Another reason, we all agree… 1 productive year in 5, does not constitute our faith in a long term deal. Now, thirdly, most of us do not believe he is worth $15 million in the first place.
The conundrum is once you go back and watch a few games or at least DF55 highlights, then you see the reason why we might just want to keep him for one more year.
So what are the options with Dee Ford?
- Sign him to a mid-term deal (say 3 years) and hopes he produces, unlike Houston and Berry
- Sign him to only the franchise tag and let him be a Free Agent after 2019 and hope he stays healthy long enough for us to receive a 3rd round comp pick in the 2020 (or 2021) draft
- Trade him now and eliminate the 2019 injury risk, while saving the 2019 cap money
Rumor has it the Chiefs are shopping him and more rumor suggests the 49ers and Packers are interested. However, trading DF55 raises the question that must be answered – What is Dee Ford worth?
The argument can be made for: a #1, a #2, a #2 plus #3, a #2 plus a #4, all depending upon which team we trade him to. But let’s get slightly more scientific, but not too fancy. Ford was the #23 pick in the 2014 draft, and he just came off his first Pro Bowl year, therefore he is worth a #1. Not gonna happen with the 49ers since they have the 2nd overall pick. Green Bay has 2 picks, #12 overall and #30 overall. Not gonna happen at #12, so #30 could be in play.
In today’s draft trade chart terms Ford is worth (assuming the #23 value) is 760 points.
A trade to the 49ers could generate a #2 pick (#36 overall worth 540 points) and a #3 pick (76 overall worth 255 points). Thus we trade a 1x Pro Bowler coming off his best season and we in theory owe the 49ers 35 draft points. But hey, we trained him and grew him up, so what is 35 draft points amongst friends right? Plus, Ford is now 27. I call it a wash.
A trade to the Packers could generate a #1 pick (#30 overall worth 620 points) and we call it even, giving up the 140 draft points. None of us would dare push the Packers beyond this, and we would all scream in delight.
Another Packer option is to trade for a #2 pick (#44 pick overall worth 460 points) and #3 pick (#75 overall worth 215 points). A total of 675 points leaving us 85 in the hole, but again, we would all be elated and screaming pleasantries.
If the 49ers have a speed rusher in hand, they can turn their eyes toward a different position in the draft at #2 overall or even trade down and pick up more choices.
If the Packers have a speed rusher in hand, they too can turn their eyes to another position like TE at #12… or trade down from #12 and replace draft capital they just traded to us… or trade out of #30 (if not traded to us) or keep it and focus on 2 quality players in the top 30.
2 Pick Scenario (best case)
Assuming a trade with the 49ers, we could end up with:
#29, #36, #61, #63, #67, and #92
Assuming a trade with the Packers, we could end up with:
#29, #44, #61, #63, #75, and #92
Either scenario is a great haul and allows us to move or down the draft board for our kind of guys.
1 Pick Scenario (worst case)
Assuming a trade with the 49ers, we could end up with:
#29, #36, #61, #63, and #92
Assuming a trade with the 49ers, we could end up with:
#29, #44, #61, #63, and #92
Best-Best case Scenario is obtaining Green Bay’s #30, but I do not see that happening, unless their new GM is scared of his shadow, and believes he needs to make a big draft splash, and Veach pulls a Kevin Costner in Draft Day.
Regardless, I think we would be beside ourselves with 2 picks from either team (a 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder) and then we can sit back and drool over the possibilities on draft day.
So what do say you? How much is Dee Ford worth?
David Perkins — ArrowheadOne
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