Chiefs: Winning This Year vs. Drafting For the Future

I know a number of Kansas City Chiefs fans that were shell-shocked by the 2017 draft results. Count me among the shell-shocked. You may be a proponent of the Chiefs drafting QB Partick Mahomes II but still be wondering, “How could they NOT take a defensive tackle in this draft?” The answer to that question may not be immediately apparent but before you jump ship — or force some other fans to walk a plank — let’s navigate the process of fixing the team this offseason, and more specifically, the run defense.

That elephant in the room this offseason has been the 2016 run defense and it’s ranking of 26th in the league based on the 121.1 yards given up per game. However, saying that the run defense was “the” reason for the Chiefs downfall last season would be a misnomer. That same defense was stellar in the red zone allowing only 10 rushing TDs all season, which ranked 5th best in the league, tied with four other teams. Saying the Chiefs run defense was “the” problem would be like saying the Denver Broncos’ downfall last season was because of their poor QB play alone. The reality for the Broncos is that they also had a run defense worse than Kansas City’s, ranking 28th in the league, allowing other teams 130.3 ypg. and 15 TDs.

There’s always more than one reason a team ultimately fails and that’s important to remember when you consider the pre-draft adjustment the Chiefs have made to their roster. Understanding the pre-draft adjustments is critical to understanding their draft day choices. So, what did JARD (John-Andy-Reid-Dorsey) do to address their run-defense-quagmire during free agency and then, the draft?

Addressing the Run Defense in Free Agency

The obvious first move was to allow Dontari Poe to leave via free agency. Yes, JARD signed DT Bennie Logan BEFORE Poe signed a deal in Atlanta but you can be sure that Dorsey and Reid had already decided to let Poe go and had no plans for re-signing him… probably at any salary. Why? Because Dontari Poe ranked 90th in the league in run defense among interior defensive linemen, according to ProFootball Focus (no, I don’t take their ratings as gospel but they provide an overall framework). This was a move of addition by subtraction. Remove the worst run defenders and the defense gets better. So, they had to let Jaye Howard go as well. Howard ranked 43 against the run.

Out with the Old, In With the New

In a piece written 8 weeks ago by Sam Monson for Pro Football Focus called “10 Sleeper Free Agents Who Could Bring Surprise Upside,” he listed Bennie Logan as one of those sleepers and had this to say about the Chiefs newly acquired nose tackle, 

“Logan is a true nose tackle…. he was a poor fit for Philadelphia’s new, aggressive, one-gap defensive front, but the year before he notched 45 defensive stops, fourth in the league among all interior defenders despite playing just 597 snaps in total. Only Damon Harrison had a better run-stop percentage than Logan’s 14.8 percent, a figure that would also have been second to Harrison this season. Embrace the two-gapping, run-stuffing ability and you could transform your run defense for pennies on the dollar.”

While JARD were planning their offseason strategy and then carrying out the first step, they also recognized there were other… unforeseen… reasons, that hopefully won’t linger, or rear their ugly, head next season: injuries (I’m knocking on wood big time right now).

The (Injury) Bug That Crashed the Hard Drive

The real reason that the Chiefs run defense crashed and burned in 2016 was injuries. Many alternative-facts–players performed on-field “Chinese Fire Drills” while the starters were gone which made putting a solid run-defense together improbable. Players were used in the front seven — like mismatched socks on a centipede — including Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ranked 91st vs. the run), T.J. Barnes (87th vs. the run), Jarvis Jenkins (ranked 50th vs. the run), D.J. Alexander (89th in run defense among LBs), Terrance Smith (86th) Justin March-Lillard (65th) while Ramik Wilson was the Chiefs best front-seven run defender (ranked 33rd vs. the run). Even Safety Daniel Sorenson spent time at ILB in 2016 (88th). All ranking provided by PFF.

In the meantime, many front-seven players played through nagging injuries which limited their production:

• Jaye Howard, Dee Ford, Derrick Johnson, and Justin Houston all missed time during the season.

• Dee Ford was asked to switch from one side of the field to the other when Houston returned from injury.

• Both Ford and Houston had several games where they actually played while being hampered by injury.

• Jaye Howard went down for good.

• Derrick Johnson went down for good.

• Allen Bailey also went down for good.

• Justin March-Lillard (JML) went down essentially for good, playing in the first 5 games and was active for the playoff game against the Steelers.

• Tamba Hali was bone on bone last year.

• Dontari Poe was less than the best version of himself because of back surgery a year and a half ago.

Bob Sutton actually did a yeoman’s job with the players he had, considering so many of his starters were injured. When you line up all the reasons the Chiefs didn’t defend against the run very well, the injury excuse is not just an excuse… it’s the number one reason for a #26 ranking.

The 2017 Run Defense Vision

2016 second-round pick Chris Jones was a warrior in the trenches last year. He ranked 13th among all defensive tackles in the NFL. He will be heavily relied upon in the coming season. C.J. was good against both the run and vs. the pass. 28 tackles and 2.0 sacks as a second team DE (it took Tyson Jackson 3 years to produce 2 sacks).

Bennie Logan should actually bring some fresh legs. With Doug Pederson taking over as the head coach in Philly and Jim Schwartz taking over as their DC, Bennie Logan only played 45.8% of the Eagles defensive snaps in 2016. The previous season, while playing in a 3-4 defense, Bennie Logan was considered the 4th best defensive tackle in the NFL.

With Allen Bailey (ranked in the top 20% of all DL in the NFL the previous 3 years) returning and giving the Chiefs a full season, the starters along the defensive line should get a much-needed lift against the run. Bailey’s return, with Jones and Logan, could possibly make this a group top ten DL. These three could easily give the Chiefs one of the better starting 3-4 DL trios around, vs. the run.

Starting Inside Linebackers Derrick Johnson and Justin March-Lillard appear that they’ll be ready to contribute from day one of camp in St. Joe this year. Ramik Wilson was released last year and then returned to play his best ball yet and is an ascending ILB. The experience that other players got with both DJ and JML absent, should also give DC Bob Sutton some wonderful options as he moves his LBs in and out to keep them fresh… and more importantly… healthy.

Addressing the Run Defense in the Draft

If you were operating under the impression that the Chiefs needed to take some players in the draft who could help “this year” to stop the run, it now is clear that John Dorsey and Andy Reid felt they’d already addressed those needs earlier in the offseason. By going into the draft with the idea that they could target specifically the players they “wanted most” is a turn from their espoused “BPA” (best player available) approach. Although the BPA method would have allowed JARD to sit still and snatch up whomever fell in their laps, that wasn’t their plan this year. Instead, they traded and traded, like a hedge fund freak downing coca-laced espresso shots.

So, this “deal-n-steal, jump-n-trump” strategy that JARD used in this draft got them exactly who they wanted. Therefore, it’s also reasonable to deduce that they did exactly what they wanted to do, as it pertains to fixing the defensive line, or — perceptually — not, in this draft. While the theme of this draft seemed to be “drafting for the future” it would not be correct to assume that JARD thinks none of these picks will contribute this year against the run. So, what can we expect from this year’s crop and specifically, who can help with the run defense?

Tanoh Kpassagnon (tawn-oh, pass-N-yo)

Lance Zeirlien of NFL.com shares some stats.

“Kpassagnon got healthy in 2015, turning in a first-team All-Colonial Athletic Association season with 9.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. The Pennsylvania native took his game up a notch last fall, garnering first-team Associated Press FCS All-American honors, ranking sixth in the FCS with 21.5 tackles for loss and tying for fifth nationally with 11 sacks.”

I’m convinced that if Tahon Kpassagnon’s name was something like “Johnny Johnson” or “Davey Smith,” he would have been drafted much earlier and at least much more well known. Being 6-foot-7 and weighing 289 pounds while running a 4.83 40-yard dash makes him a freak, which is what he’s being called by evaluators and analysts. If you haven’t seen what he did to OL phenom prospect Forrest Lamp, take a look,

When the Chiefs play the L.A. Chargers, you can only imagine how Forrest Lamp will feel going up against Kpassagnon. When Tanoh Kapssagnon becomes a part of the DL rotation, he will be more than just a penetrator. In any case, the Chiefs run defense will be better in 2017. JARD only needed to make the changes they made in free agency for that to be the case but adding a “freak” along the DL who can not only play the run but get upfield on passing downs, should help… when he cracks the rotation.

Ukeme Eligwe (ew-KIM-ay, ee-LEEG-way)

Before I even go hog wild and suggest that Ukeme Eligwe can help against the run this year, I would first like to say that Derrick Johnson, Justin March-Lillard and Ramik Wilson will all be plenty enough to make sure the run defense is head-and-shoulders better in 2017. I see Ukeme Eligwe as an eventual replacement for DJ when he decides to hang up his cleats. In the meantime, DJ will be a wonderful mentor for Eligwe. 2017 Help? Minimal. Very.

Bottom Line Results of the 2017 Draft

When you’re talking about upgrading the defensive line, this draft didn’t have much to do with it. That should tell you something. The bottom line is, the Chiefs came away with an incredible group of prospects who will help more down the line instead of this year.

The pieces the Chiefs have on their DL are an upgrade over last season’s pieces. However, year’s ago I stayed up late at night playing Solitaire but couldn’t win. So, I kept playing until I won. Then, around 1:30 AM, I counted the cards and realized I wasn’t playing with a full deck (no comments from the peanut gallery … I immediately GOT the meaning). My hope is that John Dorsey is not done stocking the DL because, as much as I like the cards he’s playing with, I’m not sure he is playing with a full deck either. There’s no way JARD can expect Bennie Logan to take all of the 821 defensive snaps that Poe provided when Logan has averaged 542 defensive snaps per year since he’s been in the league (2013-2016) and the most snaps he ever had was 639 in 2014.

I’ve prepared a companion piece to this one so look for it tomorrow. It’s not really a part 2 but I’ll take a look at who the Chiefs could have drafted instead… the piece is called, “Re-Drafting 2017: Time Travel and A Parallel Universe.”

Go Chiefs!!!

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