Eye in the Sky Report: 12/31/16
By John Cooney
Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind
Week 17 is pretty cut-n-dry for the Chiefs. Kansas City clinches the AFC West title and a first-round bye with a win coupled with a Raiders loss. The team has locked up a playoff berth, so this is not one of those ‘must-win’ situations, but a first round bye is invaluable for a deep run into the post-season. Banged up players like Spencer Ware, Justin Houston and Phillip Gaines would benefit with time to heal during a first round bye.
As for last week’s blowout of the 2015 Denver Broncos, let’s divvy out a few game balls.
Game Balls
This has become a weekly tradition since week 8, so here’s another big-time game ball to Travis Kelce; 160 yards and a TD on 11 catches. WR Tyreek Hill didn’t catch any of the 5 throws his way, yet took 6 handoffs out of the backfield, racked up 95 yards, including a 70 yard TD bolt. DB Terrance Mitchell had 6 tackles (5 solo) helping to sub for injured Phillip Gaines. Safety Daniel Sorensen made 3 solo stops, forced a fumble and recovered 2, one on special teams. ILB Ramik Wilson led with 6 tackles (5 solo) and is also leading the defense with his energy and revved-up motor.
Housekeeping and injury notes
OLB Justin Houston missed the last game with a knee injury and will not be able to play against the Chargers on Sunday.
QB Tyler Bray is nursing a chip fracture in his spine and there is no timetable for a return.
OLB Tamba Hali is coping with a lingering knee injury and it is unclear if it will hinder his availability Sunday against the Chargers.
RB Spencer Ware suffered a rib injury in the last game and it is unclear if he will be able to play against the Chargers on Sunday.
WR Chris Conley left the last game with an ankle injury and it is uncertain if he will play Sunday against the Chargers.
CB Phillip Gaines has missed the last two games with a knee injury and it is uncertain if he will play Sunday against the Chargers.
ILB Justin March-Lillard has been activated from injured reserve but it is undetermined if he will play Sunday against the Chargers.
Thoughts on the game this week against
AFC West rivals in San Diego
A win along with a Raider loss and the Chiefs are AFC West champions. Back on opening day KC outlasted the Chargers 33-27. QB Alex Smith morphed into a Drew Brees type in week 1, throwing 48 times for 363 yards and 2 TDs while also rushing for a 3rd. Smith may have to tee it up again in like manner if SD QB Philip Rivers gets it going at home. Rivers has had his problems succeeding against the Chiefs’ secondary over the last 4 games, failing to throw a TD 3 of the 4 while tossing 4 picks.
Coach Reid may want to stick to the ball-control plan that has become this team’s trademark, and let the defense shut down the Chargers. That would pretty much negate Smith for week 17 fantasy football use. But this being week 17, and in San Diego, my gut tells me that Rivers will move the football and force Smith into a solid QB2 here. RB Spencer Ware may not play, or will play in a limited role, thanks to banged up ribs. Not to worry KC fans as Charcandrick West is ready to rock. In that week 1 tilt versus the Chargers Ware rumbled for 70 yards rushing on just 11 carries (6.4 YPC- OUTSTANDING!). Even better, Ware wrecked San Diego for 129 yards on 1 receptions. Though West took an obvious backseat to Ware in the opener, he wasn’t completely forgotten, hauling in 6 passes as well. Do the math folks, that’s 13 catches between the 2 RBs versus the Bolts. This week, West has the backfield mostly to himself. This game has all the earmarks of a Charcandrick West starring role.
WR Tyreek Hill will see a few more plays out of the backfield with Ware hurting and West handling a majority of touches and snaps there. Hill, just getting his feet wet in the NFL pool back in week 1, caught just 1 pass versus San Diego, but good for a 9-yard TD. Now in week 17 Hill is one of the NFL most feared weapons in 3 phases of the game; receiving, rushing and returning kicks/punts. In the pristine conditions at San Diego, Hill can heat up and blaze for more of his signature turf-burning long gainers and scores. Coach Reid, always with some kind of connection with the Packers, may take a Ty Montgomery page out of the Green Bay HC McCarthy’s playbook and use Hill more as a RB in week 17. Hill did play some tailback in his various collegiate stops.
WR Jeremy Maclin hasn’t been ‘right’ most of the season. He is now essentially a possession receiver. Season finales often are games where players play loose and free, with nothing to lose. However, the Chiefs are playoff bound and Maclin still has to get ‘right‘ to be of service in the post season. Most likely the veteran wideout will work in what has become his usual method this season; move the chains and provide leadership.
TE Travis Kelce has been more than ‘right’ since week 8. Week 1 Kelce lined up 6-74 versus the Chargers. Since week 8 the KC prolific TE has racked up six 100-yard games. With all his between-the-20s fireworks, Kelce’s TD production has been a bit of a dud; just 4 on the season and 2 over the last 9 games. In what may be a tip of the cap to KC legendary TE Tony Gonzalez, Kelce closes out the regular season with decent yardage but checks in for 6. The Tony G reference in this game is relevant. San Diego’s longtime star TE Antonio Gates is just 1 TD way from tying Gonzalez’s career all-time mark for touchdowns by a TE (111). It would be apropos for Gates to tie and/or break the record against the Chiefs. Gates is a most worthy candidate to carry that record away from Gonzalez.
A Few Quick Observations
WR Albert Wilson has quietly faded from the offense at the same time Tyreek Hill has come on. Are Wilson’s days in Kansas City numbered?
Ware and West are the only ‘useable’ backs on the roster. Knile Davis is not in Coach Reid’s plans in any way. Who can help in an emergency if the post-season at RB for the Chiefs? Tyreek Hill!
ILB is now a position of need this coming draft.
CB, CB, CB is always a need, even with solid starters in-house.
IDP for Week 17
ILB Ramik Wilson should have a terrific game. He’ll be running with TE Gates at times, and dominating the Chargers’ makeshift backfield of mediocre Ronnie Hillman and plodding Andre Williams. CB Marcus Peters shadows the fleet Travis Benjamin. Peters has INT potential any given week, but Rivers has been pick-prone the 2nd half of the season. Peters can shine here. Sub DB Terrance Mitchell will be hanging around TEs Gates and Hunter Henry as well as helping to bracket WR Dontrelle Inman. Mitchell brings good tackle numbers and with the way Rivers has found enemy hands over the last 8 games, a Mitchell INT looks probable. Safety Eric Berry smells playoffs and will be playing with an extra jump in his stride here.
The regular season comes to a close this week. Then post-season action begins. 12-4 is a terrific finish, given the injuries to so many key personnel and the infusion of young players. Whatever happens, enjoy the rest of the run. This club is built to handle various conditions and situations. Go with it. Happy New Year to all and thanks for making Fantasy Football Mastermind your source for all-things fantasy football.
John Cooney is a Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind.
.
