Gimme A Break: Tie Breakers and
Chiefs Path to the One-Seed
by Ransom Hawthorne | December 15, 2018
After a crap-tastic suck-fest of awfulness, the Kansas City Chiefs sit tied, atop the AFC, but that could change at any moment. Certainly the easiest path to the one seed was to win out, but it’s just one of a few ways the Chiefs could get there. With a couple of teams, within striking distance, I think it’s worth looking at the impact of tie breakers. Whatever the Chiefs do, there are only three teams who can catch up, as the loss to the Raiders eliminated the Steelers from that group. They are the Patriots, Chargers and Texans.
Patriots: When two teams finish with the same record, the NFL goes to a list of tie breakers. The top of that list is head to head. At the time, the loss to the Pats felt like a moral victory. Now it stings, as one more loss by the Chiefs, paired with an undefeated finish for the Patriots, would put Brady in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. I don’t have to tell you that Foxborough is not the place to be, in January.
Texans: Right behind the Patriots, are the Texans. Chiefs and Texans haven’t played, so head to head is out. Next up is division record. Texans have two division losses, while Chiefs currently, have one (THANKS REFS!!!). Still, with the Raiders suddenly looking less bad, wracking up two division losses, before the end of the year, isn’t out of the question. Should that happen, NFL will look at common opponents. Both teams have played the Patriots, Browns, Jaguars and Broncos with, unfortunately, the same result. Tie breaker #4 is conference record. Texans have three losses in the AFC. Chiefs have one. With Chiefs’ remaining schedule, it’s impossible to get more than two conference losses, meaning a tie goes to the Chiefs.
Chargers: I don’t know what it is about the Chargers and winning on the backs of the refs, but it seems to work for them. Last time they beat the Chiefs, the NFL had to apologize because they missed a blatant penalty, on Succop’s missed kick. Anyway, head to head is out. That leaves division record. Chargers have two losses in the division. That’s a mark that Chiefs can match with Thursday’s loss, and another vs the Raiders, but, if Chargers go undefeated, they’ll have a better record anyway. If Chiefs drop one to the Raiders, and Chargers drop one, it’ll be a tie, but Chargers final three games are against AFC opponents, so a loss to one of them, would leave Chiefs with the better conference record and the division crown.
The Bottom Line: All the easiest paths started with beating the Chargers on Thursday. With that out the window, Chiefs will have to win both their remaining games. That could be a tall task, as Seattle is looking much improved, and it’s always tough to play in the 2nd loudest stadium, in the world. However, losses against both Chargers and Seattle aren’t necessarily the end of the world, as Patriots could still lose to the Steelers, at Heinz field and Chargers still have Baltimore, and the Broncos, left on their schedule. Raiders can’t be completely overlooked, after putting together quality games, back to back, but chiefs should be able to handle them, without too much trouble, given that the game is in Arrowhead. Chiefs defense has been a mess on the road, and passable, for stretches, at home, so securing home field advantage could be vital to Chiefs’ playoff hopes. Here’s hoping that starts a week from Sunday. Go Chiefs.
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