“What is in short supply is in high demand, and paid accordingly.” Except in the NFL. Even quarterbacks who have only won 7 games can get a contract for $137.5 million with a whopping $74M guaranteed (Jimmy Garoppolo). That’s how desperate teams, and owners, are for good quarterbacks that they believe will deliver them to the promised land (a Super Bowl).
So much of this is perception. However, there is an increasing reality that the NFL has reached the point of QB saturation. Let’s take a quick look at the following list of teams that already have their franchise QBs in place:
AFC and NFC Teams and their Quarterbacks
I’ll save you the time counting how many teams DON’T have a QB. It’s 5. So, let’s take a look at the 5 plus the available QBs this offseason.
First, you can see that there are five veteran QBs who will mostly all be available at the top of my chart. Below those QBs, on the list on the right, are the top 6 rated QB prospects in this draft. Beyond that, there’s Drew Stanton who is still on the Arizona roster but he’s 34 years old in May and is likely to be around to help train whoever the Cards bring in. I think Kirk Cousins is a good fit in AZ so we’ll see.
The Browns are obviously taking a QB at 1 or 4. Deshone Kizer turned out to be a non-factor with no upside. Whoever they take will set the tone for the rest of the draft as far as selecting QBs is concerned. Josh Allen has a big arm but, like Patrick Mahomes, he didn’t necessarily prove that he was a winning QB on a winning team (18-and-21 record at Wyoming)… of course he wasn’t surrounded by the best talent either. But the potential is top line. Knowing John Dorsey, he’ll probably try to sign Cousins and then go ahead and draft a QB to train under him. However, I don’t see a veteran QB who would want to go to Cleveland: ah, Cleveland, where NFL player’s dreams go to die.
The Denver Broncos are primed to get a top talent in this draft. It’s hard to see teams jumping up in front of the Broncos. It would take way to much draft capital as well as players to be added to the trade to leap to number 2, 3, or 4. Besides, if the Browns do the right thing… and take the BPA… it won’t be a QB… so they’ll need to take a QB at #4. If Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield are still on the board, they’re exactly the kinds of QBs that Elway loves. One thing I am sure of… Elway will be taking a QB in this draft at #5… if he doesn’t sing a guy like Kirk Cousins in Free Agency.
We should see back-to-back QBs taken because as soon as the Broncos announce their pick, the Jets will jump all over the next best QB. Now, because the Jets are sitting at #6… one space behind the Broncos… they’re the only team I can see jumping ahead of them to get their man. It’s going to be interesting at the top of the draft… but rest assured, the Jets will be taking their QBOTF… and maybe start him on day one. They need a guy who’s that good.
The Buffalo Bills present an interesting vantage point with two first-round picks at 21 and 22. They could easily package those and move up into the top ten. I think it would take a whole lot more to reach all the way up to number 4… but if there’s a team who needs a QB and they have their eye on that prize fighting QB… they just might be able to swing but I think it will take more than two first-round picks to do it.
The point is… all of this is going to happen. Then what will we have? We’ll have a league where every single team is starting a QB who they believe is the face of their franchise… and… there’ll be a bunch of other QBs who are capable of starting just sitting on the bench waiting for their turn… or not even signed to a team and sitting at home. Of course, some QBs could turn out to be like Deshone Kizer… but they sure don’t rate that way. Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Baker Mayfield all plan on throwing at the NFL Combine which begins tomorrow. Someone… at almost every position group, shows up and then improves their status during combine week so it’s hard to see one of these QBs failing like Kizer in his rookie year.
I’ve said this before but it bares repeating, the more QBs who are selected high in this draft… push higher rated prospects down to the Chiefs where they pick for the first time at #54. Here’s hoping 7 or 8 QBs are drafted in the first two rounds before the Chiefs select. In the meantime… the Chiefs are needing to sign a back-up QB of their own… but it looks like there will be plenty of QBs to choose from even after all the top shelf QBs are gone.
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