No Stone Left Unturned : The Defensive Front Three
David Bell
Short bio: Former software Engineer, 1980-2005(IBM, BMC Software and Compuware), Counselor for a contract program of the Veteran’s Administration; married twice, 2 sons, a fly-fisherman, U.S. Wanderer since the tornado in Joplin, 5/22/11, 33 ft sloop, Restless Rosie. And of course, an NFL football nut – but a “Chiefsfansince63.”
Usually, I approach training camp by looking at each position as a general group of players and whether we should be in a depressed state of mind due to what we are going to be presented with this particular defensive group. Today, I’m looking at the status of the Big Front Three in that vein. When you look at the Kansas City Chiefs Front Three in 2016… there were problems and this caused the Chiefs no end of shortcomings which DC Bob Sutton had to scramble to manage. It is my contention that Sutton did a pretty dang good job in the doing of what needed to be done.
It is my view of the game. We can’t have a Pro-Bowl player at every position. Let’s take a peek from that framework.
Let me highlight what the problems truly were:
The season started out with high expectations only to see two players knocked out of the game with season ending injuries: Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey. We need to examine the effective of this. Neither player is a Pro-Bowl talent. At the very least they have not been recognized as such but both had performed above the journeyman level in their starting role. Note that I have had an admiration of Jaye Howard who, when the play is away from his side of the field pursues to make tackles across and down field. His motor was a good one and I am, for one, sorry he has departed the Chiefs Kingdom.
Allen Bailey’s season came to an abrupt end in week five of play and suddenly the Chiefs were starting Chris Jones (more on Jones later). Jaye Howard (23 tackles-18 solo-5 assists -1 sack) did not make it to mid-season, sustaining his injury in the middle of the year. So, by the time we are halfway through the 2016 season, the Chiefs had lost both starting defensive ends of their 34-hybrid, and had a NT in Poe who was not performing at the basic journeyman level (according to Pro Football Focus – PFF). When I look at Bailey’s numbers, his poor performance was to the point where he could not play and across 5 games, he only had 7 tackles, 5 solo, 2 assists, no sacks.
Dontari Poe! A fan favorite but, he was looking up at a big contract year and yet his performance was abysmal. Teams no longer double teamed him and all this could be attributed to his injured back. Oh, he was able to play but, he was still a factor and PFF ranked his performance at 55.8. That is an awful number for someone who was going to work to get a contract north of $8 million. Which is why John Dorsey, at least in my view, did not work to try to retain Mr. Poe.
If you examine the impact of this on the defense, you must admit, that the performance of the front 3 was nowhere near what was anticipated before the season started. I am not writing about the performance of other player positions and how they inter-relate. When you look at the basic affect, it’s almost as if the entire defensive front three was out for the count.
The Front Three without Howard and Bailey (and Poe)
By the time Bailey and Howard are lost for the season, two essential rookies to NFL Play were required to fill in.
Enter Chris Jones
Chris Jones numbers tell us a lot: 28-17-11-2. Not bad for someone thrust into the position as a rookie. That’s why he made the NFL all rookie team. For the Chiefs? He was the highest ranked lineman and the tops on the list among all of them. Subtracting Bailey out of the equation, no other defensive lineman exceeded 5 tackles and Sutton tried several of them. Since I don’t know who will be retained to the 53 man roster in 2017, there is no sense projecting much at all for now. Let’s get through camp first.
However, there is more to Chris Jones:
PFF had the rookie DE for the 34 ranked behind only five players. Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Jack Conklin, and Joey Bosa. Recall that I had Jones on my must draft list if we didn’t target someone in the top ranked players. It turns out Dorsey saw the same thing and drafted him in the second round. It appears to me that Dorsey’s eye for talent struck gold – again. All but Jones and Prescott were not 1st round picks and… also all the others were selected with the first 8 picks in the draft. Prescott was selected in round 4, Jones in round 2.
According to PFF’s metrics, Jones as a rookie had a 9.9 pass rush productivity rating, 3rd among all NFL defensive linemen. He had 31 QB pressures on 240 pass rushes, only 4 fewer than the 49’ers DeForest Buckner. Buckner’s QB pressures came after 123 more pass rushing snaps. At this point, you can see that Chris Jones stands out among these players and deserves high jingo credo’s from the top of the Chiefs Management Function and especially Andy Reid and Bob Sutton.
Enter Rakeem Nunez-Roches
By the end of the season, RNR was building his play experience which was basically nil to this point in his career. His end of the season numbers were: 23 total tackles, 14 unassisted, 9 assists and 1 sack. That’s from a 6th round draft pick, a man from Belize no less.
I am not saying this is the answer opposite Bailey or Jones either one. I am saying it appears to me that if… RNR moves his play forward in 2017, the Chiefs will have a solid foundation for the front 3…..except a backup Nose Tackle.
Enter Bennie Logan
Some are reading this and saying, we can’t replace Dontari Poe with Ben Logan and expect the same high octane bully that pushed two defenders back into the pocket. And I am not saying that. But the 2016 Version of Poe was not that man either). Yeah, that’s right. Logan cannot replace Poe. But Logan’s play, even out of his home position of NT, is a player whose run defense is superior to that recorded by Poe. We know as well that Poe’s rating was abysmal due to his performance. Not only this, but Logan did not play his native NT positions for the last 3 seasons. But his last season at NT was very good according to BJ Kissel of the Chiefs: he had 55 tackles (39 Solo) and 45 total stops, the best of his career. He was in the top 10 in the tackle category. This not an era for Poe any longer but Logan brings other intangibles to the front three. He is quicker and has considerably better lateral speed. This is a plus for the type defense Sutton employs.
The Bottom Line
Bailey returns from his injury plagued 2016 season… Howard and Poe have departed… Chris Jones returns to build on his prior year’s numbers and hopefully shows improvement big time with a starters snaps (using 2016 snap count numbers of to base a projection upon). In my view, Jones has a first step and power move that will begin to show superiority in the pass rush. Bailey, until 2016, showed solid play and is not just appearing on the field of play as a journeyman. I think RNR improved as the season wore on to the point he will likely will be behind the starters and getting meaningful snaps all season long. Logan is and has been a starter at NT and he performed very well at his native position.
Is there really a reason to be in a funk about a run defense gone sour as the season of 2016 progressed? I would say, negative. Nope. Nada. I think the front three will be improved in 2017 with experience garnered by 2 rookies and the addition of Bennie Logan over what occurred in 2016.
Again: I have not folded in the inter-relatedness of the defensive positions. But the run defense? It seems to me that it was a foregone conclusion that the Chiefs were going to suffer – especially when Poe’s inability to take on the double team had become a game plan factor for opposing teams and two starters out.
KC did not have a second man to substitute for Poe and I have observed the import of Chris Jones, RNR and the outlook for 2017 with Logan in the shop, I think the Chiefs will be much tougher to run against in 2017. Let’s see what camp brings us for a 5th man to this list.
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