Red Saunders once said, “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.” Andy Reid may have build one of the most winning teams in recent history, for the Chiefs, but it’s bittersweet for fans. In many ways, the Todd Hayley days were easy to stomach. The Chiefs were awful every year and you knew they would be. Any minor improvement was cause for celebration. Today’s Chiefs garner much higher expectations, and more pronounced disappointment. While KC fans have had a lot of regular season joy, they’ve endured a substantial amount of post-season heartache. It would seem that fans aren’t the only ones dissatisfied, with the lack of post-season success. Both head coach Andy Reid and general manager John Dorsey are laying the foundation for a Super Bowl contending team, and it all starts with Patrick Mahomes.
The Run Defense
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been really good since defensive coordinator Bob Sutton got here, but it hasn’t come without some wrinkles. The Chiefs defense has consistently struggled with the run. In yards per carry allowed, since 2013, they’ve ranked, 26th, 30th, 16th and 24th. They’ve done much better against the pass, in terms of yards per attempt, ranking 18th, 3rd, 3rd and 12th over the same span. In a passing league, Sutton has been willing to give up the run to stay strong against the pass. The obvious answer would be to focus on shoring up the run game. While Chiefs have made a move or two in that direction, it doesn’t seem to have been a huge off-season priority. Instead, Chiefs are focusing on building a high scoring offense.
In 2016, Patrick Mahomes threw 41 TD in 12 games. Over the last two seasons, Alex Smith has thrown a total of 35 touchdowns in 31 games. Granted, that’s comparing college to the NFL, but it’s still a pretty stark difference. This, I believe, is the answer to the Chiefs‘ run defense problems. Teams can’t run the ball when they are down multiple scores. They can’t settle for FGs when the opposing offense is scoring TDs. This is what made Seattle so successful in their Super Bowl run. They sported a suffocating pass defense and a QB who knew how to finish drives.
Comeback Ability
Another barrier to the Chiefs championship hopes has been a lack of ability to come back when down. While last year saw a surge in comebacks, recently, the Chiefs have not been a comeback team. It’s hard to point to much other than the QB, especially when you look at the stats for 2016, one of Smith’s better years in terms of comebacks:
|
Alex Smith |
Completion % |
Yards Per Catch |
QB Rating |
|
Ahead 1-8 pts |
72 |
8.8 |
113 |
|
Behind 1-8 pts |
62.9 |
7.7 |
86.6 |
|
Behind 9-16 pts |
67 |
6.2 |
65.4 |
Maybe these stats explain why there are so many different perceptions of Smith. It’s because you get three different versions of Smith. Elite Smith, when he’s ahead, average Smith, when he’s not far behind, and bad Smith, when he’s down by two scores. The Patriots are the undisputed best team in the NFL. A large part of that, is because Tom Brady actually gets better when he’s down by 1-8 points. While his QBR is marginally lower than when ahead by 1-8 points, his completion percentage and yards per completion are both higher when down by 1-8 points. His, down by 9-16, stats aren’t that great, but it’s a pretty limited sample size. Brady threw only 17 passes down by two scores. Smith threw 61. If Chiefs hope to contend for a Super Bowl, they’re going to have to come back sometimes. Mahomes spent pretty much all his college years playing from behind due to an awful defense. It’s not much of stretch to think he’d be an improvement over Smith, in that department.
Getting Some Calls
Lets face it, whether we like it or not, NFL refs call more fouls for some QBs than others. Cam Newton might have been the first to complain about it much, but he’s certainly not the only one to experience it. Big name QBs like Brady get to watch a torrential downpour of yellow flags when somebody has the gall to hit them a fraction of a second too late. The mobile, mediocre QBs, like Smith, though, can get nearly decapitated on a false start and it’s totally fine. Playoff games are often decided by the tiniest of margins. If a ref suddenly decides to make a holding call he hasn’t made all game, at the wrong time (no I’m not bitter at all, nope, definitely not bitter), it can change the outcome of the entire game. If you want some calls to bounce your way, it helps to have a QB who’s better known for being a great passer than a dangerous runner.
Saving The Cap
Every Chiefs fan is well acquainted with the money Chiefs can save by moving on from Smith and starting a rookie. That’s not what I’m talking about here though. Team’s like the Patriots and, for a while, the Broncos, have made a living off of signing cheap free agents. While Chiefs were stuck over-paying for Dwayne Bowe, Broncos were stealing Emanuel Sanders because Peyton Manning was their QB. Tons of great players have done stints with the Patriots, for less than the going rate, because they wanted to win a championship. Drafting talent is one way to save cap space, but having the leverage in contract negotiations, that comes from an elite QB, can save you a lot more money in the long run. If Patrick Mahomes turns into the gun-slinger we all hope he does, WRs will be anxious to bolster their stats with a stay in KC. What’s more, when Chiefs do let a productive WR go, they’re likely to get a good compensatory pick for him. For example, Broncos got a 4th round comp for Eric Decker and didn’t really seem to miss his production much. This advantage is very underrated. Elway looked like a genius of a GM when he had Manning. Everyone wondered how he was able to sign players so cheap. The only thing Denver fans are wondering now is ‘what happened?’ An elite QB can have a massive impact on the salary cap, in a good way. It’s too early to say whether that’s what Chiefs have in Mahomes, but given the investment, you know they believe he can be.
When you look at Chiefs’ path to the Super Bowl this year, it pretty much comes down to an elite defense, a solid run game and some good luck with no serious injuries. If you look at that pathway going forward, there are a lot more ways to get there. If Chiefs can finally field an offense, worthy of their defense, the sky is the limit. I can’t blame Dorsey and Reid for putting their cards in the Mahomes basket. The upside is just so much higher than what they’ve had with Smith. Here’s hoping for a good year this year and the beginning of something special next year. Go Chiefs!
Bonus Thought
Chiefs’ biggest barriers to post-season success have been Roethlisburger and Brady. The good news is, by the time Mahomes gets his second contract, both are likely to be retired. Since no other QBs are really separating themselves from the pack, the Chiefs have a chance to field the next big name QB… and that’s a prospect that’s pretty exciting, to say the least.
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