Phillip Maxwell
Other than a friendly wager between friends from time to time, I personally have never bet on sports in my life, but I have to say I have always found it a little interesting how Vegas can find a way to break down every little facet of the game and turn it into something worth a stake. This particular game maybe even a little more interesting for me, seeing the game itself as a whole looks so much like a toss-up. Anyone’s game. Last team with the ball type of thingy. The small spread indicates Vegas agrees with me. Here is a look at some of Vegas’ Prop bets and where I would throw my money at… if’n I was a bettin’ man.
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The Passing Game
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Patrick Mahomes (Over/Under 260.5)
Brock Purdy (Over/Under 246.5)
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My gut says the 49ers will keep the Chiefs running game at bay. This will force Patrick and the Chiefs offense to go through the air often if they want to keep moving the sticks… and quite frankly, I’m not sure that is going to be a problem against the 49ers zone happy defense. If the Chiefs OL can keep Patrick on his feet, he should pick their secondary apart. Purdy on the other hand-who hasn’t had an issue exceeding 246.5 passing yards per game this season going over 246.5 in 12 of his 18 starts- is about to face a different kind of animal in this Chiefs pass rush. If it goes how I am envisioning it going, Purdy will be under duress often and will settle for short dump offs where both McCaffrey and Samuel are phenomenal after the catch. That said, I believe the 49ers game plan will be to press the ground game against a very stingy Chiefs passing defense.
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My pick — Patrick Mahomes (Over)
My pick — Brock Purdy (Under)
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Rushing
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Christian McCaffrey (Over/Under 90.5)
Isaiah Pacheco (Over/Under 65.5)
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McCaffrey scares me… 90.5 confuses me quite frankly, seeing he exceeds 90.5 regularly and seems to do it with ease. The man can cut through defenses like no one else. The Chiefs will have their hands full with him as I believe the 49ers are going to force feed McCaffrey the ball often. Pacheco has gotten much better at being patient and reading the lanes… but he will be facing a 49ers defense that was top 5 in the league in snuffing the run, and will be in playoff mode, playing with increased intensity. I don’t see him busting out those infamous double digit runs in this one.
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My pick — McCaffrey (Over)
My pick — Pacheco (Under)
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QB’s get in on this one too as they are often forced, but sometimes called upon to take off running from time to time. Vegas has Patrick Mahomes (Over/Under) at 26.5 and Brock Purdy’s (Over/Under) at 12.5 Patrick has made a name for himself by using his legs at the perfect opportune moments when a 1st down is an absolute necessity… and in doing so has ripped the hearts out of opponents crushing their spirits… It has almost become a bonified tradition at this point and I see it happening again this coming Sunday. Purdy? Well, I don’t see him doing much on the ground. As a matter of fact, I see him getting negative yards in this one.
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Mahomes (Over)
Purdy (Under)
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Receiving
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Travis Kelce (Over/Under 70.5)
Rashee Rice (Over/Under 66.5)
Brandon Aiyuk (Over/Under 61.5)
Deebo Samuel (Over/Under 58.5)
George Kittle (Over/Under 47.5)
Christian McCaffrey (Over/Under 33.5)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Over/Under 19.5)
Justin Watson (Over/Under 17.5)
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Let me start off by saying…..MVS, a Wide Receiver who was being touted as the Chiefs #1 receiver after signing with Kansas City, and is making north of 10 Million a season being at Over/Under 19.5 is embarrassing. If the 49ers are hell bent on playing zone which they do 90% of the time, Travis should have a huge game and so should Rice. Chiefs Pass Rush should have Purdy running his irrelevant tail off for most of the game causing him to get off quick short routes.. McCaffrey and Samuel should have big games in that regard… as I mentioned earlier, they are pretty darn good at YAC.
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My pick — Kelce (Over)
My pick — Rice (Under)
My pick — Aiyuk (Under)
My pick — Samuel (Under)
My pick — Kittle (Over)
My pick — McCaffrey (Over)
My pick — MVS (Over)
My pick — Watson (Under)
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As my wife will tell you, I’m wrong often, but that is how I see things shaping up… the 49ers on the ground and the Chiefs through the air (for the most part). I think the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at winning this, unfortunately it appears they might have to pull it off under hostile conditions as they have officially taken on the role of villain and this thing is looking very much like a home game atmosphere for the 49ers. Limiting McCaffrey is priority #1. Do so, and the Chiefs have a very good chance of hoisting their third Lombardi in 4 seasons. Now wouldn’t that just be something!
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49ers – 20
Chiefs – 31
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Go Chiefs!
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Phillip Maxwell — ArrowheadOne
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