Chiefs Most Likely Trade Partners in the 2020 Draft – in my mind too much, far too much, is made of trading draft picks, either beforehand or on draft day. Trades happen far less than fans desire, and teams tend to hold onto their draft capital, even though some should make moves. After the Brady fiasco, wherein he was drafted in the 6th round and later became a decent starter, every team wants to hold onto draft capital, hoping late round carbon turns into a diamond. I chalk up some of this to scared-of-the-fanbase GM’s, and teams ignoring the reality that 5th, 6th and 7th rounders rarely make a splash.
Draft choices are cheaper to sign vs. free agents, with the caveat that free agents in theory, are “proven” players. Draft choices are 100% unproven talent and potential. Some with a higher probability to succeed than others from the get-go, but you better have a great, not just good, scouting department, like the Chiefs do. Regardless you can always end up with a bust (too many names to mention).
One mock draft site, FirstPick.com, even though I love the simulator, is way to whacked out for me. If one wants to, 7 draft choices can turn into about 49 picks… and that is not an exaggeration. You just keep trading picks backwards and before you know it, the entire 7th round is yours!!
Trading Down?
I am a firm believer, as I was last year before the Clark trade, the Chiefs should trade down out of the 1st Round, the coveted #32 pick. Why? In 2020, mostly because the Chiefs only have 5 picks (Rounds #1 thru #5), I want to pick up another body in the Top 100. And in part, because we can, cross our collective fingers, add a contributor or starter on the cheap. Also, it is my belief, this draft is supposed to be deep across the board, and Veach confirmed it last week.
The counterargument to trading away the 32nd pick is that it holds the value of the least paid player that gives a team the right to keep that player for a 5th season if they so choose. But, how did that work out with Dee Ford or Marcus Peters?
If Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins leave, then I want another speedburner, because speed burns, and the best way to do that, is to add another draft choice… and the easiest way to do that, is to trade down out of #32. If CJ95 leaves, then we need another DL as well.
Another alternative is to trade a player and add a draft choice. Another is to tag and trade Chris Jones and add 2 draft choices, or a player and a choice.
So back to trading down out of #32… let’s assume CJ95 is signed. Please. Please. Please. One can speculate how valuable the #32 pick really is, but draft value is similar to art: that is, value is in the eye of the beholder. Now, that could leave too much to chance, so luckily Jimmy Johnson saved the NFL, when he created a draft value chart 25+ years, so he would know just how bad to fleece the Vikings, when he traded them Herschel Walker.
The Holy Grail of NFL Draft Value
Editor’s Note: the Chiefs currently have no 6th or 7th round picks so, I cut those rounds off the chart (which also makes it fit across the screen better).
This is a widely accepted value chart, although others bash it, saying it is too expensive, and the alternative floats around, but I can’t think of what website.
#32 is valued at 590 points, so theory holds that the Chiefs find a trade partner that offers them roughly the same amounts of points. To run through this quickly here is a handy chart for potential trade partners for the 32nd pick in 2020.
Problematic Trade Partners
There is a problem finding trade partners. Teams in the Top 10 are there for a reason. They stink and they need help. Teams like Cincinnati, Washington, Detroit, Jets are all about to draft again in Round #2, may not see a need to move up, and they can afford to let a player drop to them.
Most teams in the middle of the round need more help as well, although the most immediate help is found in free agency. The list above is who we want to trade with, but trading is a two way street. Do they want to trade with us?
Most Likely Trade Partners
We are most apt to trade with a team looking to grab a specific player that fell down the board. This happens every single year. A player a team thinks will put them near the top, but know won’t last another 10 picks. Maybe it is a QB, an Edge Rusher or a CB. This brings into the play the Chargers, Panthers, Jags, Dolphins, Colts, Bucs or Raiders. Although, remember, many GMs don’t like to trade within their own conference.
Anyway, the combine is upon us — just two days away — so the draft hype is about to begin!
Think Abundance. Time’s yours.
David Perkins — ArrowheadOne
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