K.C. Will Again Have a Powerful Offense: the 53-Man Roster and Logic
David Bell
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ROSTER MOVES UPDATE
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Because the Kansas City Chiefs have the best QB in the NFL —Patrick Mahomes II — the offense has been incredibly efficient in the 3 possessions of the first 2 preseason games. Proof that you can’t count the Chiefs out in any game, anywhere at any time. However… there are two areas of concern:
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- Running Game has been horrible, as the Offensive Line has not been in sync for run-blocking. At the same time…
- Pass protection has occasionally suffered, but has been generally successful, three an a half seconds into the snap.
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I am focusing on the first team offense today, as I break down each position group. We have seen little of Chad Henne as he did not play in preseason game two vs. the Commanders. Shane Buechele and Dustin Crum had the reps after Mahomes left the field for the bench. Neither Buechele or Crum will make the 53-man roster. Shane will go to the PS again and I don’t know if Crum will be retained.
It’s easy to take on digging into the TE and WR groups, so that I will address them first.
Quarterbacks – 2 Roster, 1 PS
(1) Patrick Mahomes and (2) Chad Henne. Shane Buechele will once again go to the PS if K.C. can get him to clear waivers.
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In the Thursday night game against the Packers, Shane Buechele played a good game with two TD passes to TE Matt Bushman. I don’t think it’s enough to make KC keep him on the active roster, to protect him, but it might. Last year, Buechele was called up to the active roster and stayed on it the rest of the way.
Tight Ends – 4 Roster, 1 PS, 1 PUP
Ordinarily, I would list the TEs as (1) Travis Kelce and (2) Jody Fortson. (3) Noah Gray, and (4) Blake Bell. The Chiefs have the best in the Business: Travis Kelce!
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As far as being part of the arsenal, both Jody Fortson and Noah Gray are a fit.
Blake Bell won’t be available for 6 or 8 weeks. Since I don’t know the extent of Blake Bell’s injury from the preseason game vs. the Bears, HC Andy Reid had this to say about Bell’s status: “Blake Bell had surgery on that hip flexor.” If Bell is not ready for the opener vs. the Cardinals, one of two players will substitute on the Active Roster, either Matt Bushman or Jordan Franks. Reid added this about Bushman: “Matt Bushman fractured his clavicle.”
What we do know is that Bell missed the remainder of the Bears game and was not active for the 2nd preseason game vs. the Commanders. So overall, I am satisfied that my starter group will be as noted, with either Bushman or Franks filling in for Blake if necessary.
I am excited to see Jody Fortson make an impact with his playmaking. In 2021 Jody was breaking into the NFL and had earned the trust of Mahomes. He then was injured and lost for the season. HE’S BACK!
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It was certainly evident in his two TDs vs. the Commanders.
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I’ve got to state once more that I love Jody Fortson as TE #2. Noah Gray has also made plays. Gray is a savvy player and has shown it in pre-season games.
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Both Fortson and Gray will make the Active Roster. Bell’s NFL experience and his capable blocking make him the #3 TE, when he becomes available. I can’t write enough about Travis Kelce, whose bona fides speak for themselves. Fortson then brings provocative and galvanizing excitement to the receiver corps for Patrick Mahomes. So does Noah Gray. Here is a video on Gray reading the situation when Patrick Mahomes has to flee left. The significant shift in his route and getting open for an over-the-top pass from Mahomes! See it here:
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Envision a play set with Kelce, Fortson, and Gray in the triad formation offset from the LoS right or left. I can see the Linebackers and Secondary struggling to cover the trio along with a WR Split to the opposite side simultaneously. I guess you could say I am enthusiastic about the Chiefs TE Corps. The Chiefs aerial game will be potent with the combination of players targeted to receive the ball on passes by Patrick Mahomes. Having 3 TEs (Kelce, Fortson, and Gray), all three excellent route-running receivers for the offense, adds a dimension that no other NFL team possesses.
Also, don’t knock Blake Bell’s contributions, as he has been on the receiving end of Mahomes passes. Bell adds to the blocking prowess of the OL–and this is a big worry that has arisen due to Bell’s injury and surgery. Blake’s injury was with the ground, catching the first aerial TD of preseason against the bears. See it, here:
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I want to add some worry to this tome about TEs: Matt Bushman and Jordan Franks have not shown us much of anything until the 3rd preseason game. Versus the Packers, Bushman stood out and played well – I wrote in a comment on the game thread that Bushman had made the active Roster — then he sustained a broken clavicle. There went that idea. I still don’t see Franks as having staked a claim. Ryan Tracy (RGR) and Chris Clark (Chiefs Corner) delved into the topic. They are also concerned about Blake Bell. Both men indicated that the Chiefs were poking the bushes for another TE to bring aboard. Ryan discussed adding a Tight End who would be an aerial game threat. A couple of names were mentioned in the RGR session, but nothing out of the Chiefs organization thus far. We are all outsiders looking in. Obviously, without the Belldozer, there is exposure, and now it appears Jordan Franks is the only roster solution.
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The worry is that Blake Bell, if placed in the IR, would require several weeks to recover from hip flexor surgery so he won’t be available for several weeks. If he was able to return by week 6 or 8, the Chiefs could manage. They’ve got to keep him on the active roster for week one and then place him on the IR in Week one. It could be they put him on the PUP, but I think week one, IR at this point. That’s a significant problem For the TE Group, though.
Bell has always been dependable–the freaky non-contact injury is problematic since that removes one of the 4 TEs the team depends on and may not be available. The indication is that neither Bushman nor Franks are answers to take on the #4 TE role either. Ryan Tracy went so far as to point to Connor Tanner (Idaho St), who rated very high on the RGR Athletic Matrix as a solution. Tanner is on the Dolphin’s roster, but looks to be on the outside looking in. I think Sports Reporters should be asking Brett Veach and the Coaching staff questions regarding the potential signing of Tanner or another Free Agent TE. What would that take? Or another experienced TE.
It’s possible that Reid could call on FB Mike Burton to fulfill the blocking TE role. Personally? I think signing a free agent TE is the answer, but I can see calling Franks up after Bell is placed on the IR and using Mike Burton as a blocking TE (or an H-back for that same role).
Wide Receivers – 6-Roster, 2-PS
It’s not hard to figure out the top four: Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Skyy Moore. The next two positions are the roster spots in question. I wrote about TE Jody Fortson above, but the wideout who I think has earned the 5th roster spot is Justin Watson, in fact, he’s won the position, hands down. Watson has been a playmaker in camp and preseason games. So, he is the #5 WR.
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Watching Watson run routes and find openings shows he is in sync with QB Patrick Mahomes. He knows how to get open, so here is a catch from Shane Buechele for a TD:
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The battle is on for the #6 WR position.
There is considerable talent in the mix for the last roster spot for the WR Corps: Josh Gordon, Cornell Powell, Daurice Fountain, and Corey Coleman are all vying for the #6 WR Role. If I had to guess, as I did earlier, I said that Powell and Fountain start the season on the PS because of Josh Gordon’s NFL time. Josh has failed to impress in preseason. Daurice Fountain has played well in camp and preseason.
I liked Powell when he was drafted. Unfortunately, Powell has not lived up to my vision of him, but he’s also not been given much opportunity with the “Ones.” He has flashed but that’s with the “twos” and “Threes.” For WR #6, it’s your guess — it probably comes down to Gordon and Fountain. You pick them. Any player who posted significant plays among the final four WRs in PS Game #3 should heave captured the last WR spot… but we still don’t know who that was.
Bottom Line on the WRs
The Chiefs are in excellent shape. The WR group is the best of any that I can recall. Mahomes and the crew are going to blow up the perceived weakness of the Chiefs aerial game very quickly. I’d like to see MVS get more in sync with PMII, and I want to see Moore advance quickly to a meaningful role — he appears to have already earned Patrick’s trust.
Running Backs – 3 Roster, or 4 RBs, 1 FB, & 2 PS
I hope the Chiefs have sufficient power for the running attack. At this point? We know that Derrick Gore has been placed on the IR. Since Gore is unavailable, the three rosters RBs are CEH, Jerick McKinnon, and Isiah Pacheco. Here I am worried because I have believed that the Chiefs would keep four running backs, and RoJo would be among them all along. The thing about Ronald Jones is that he has the bona fides: 2 of 4 seasons with 1,000+ yards and a Super Bowl ring. Adding RoJo as RB #4 changes the player list total. If the Chiefs go with 4 RBs plus a FB, then I think RoJo gets the nod. Jerrion Ealy and Fleet-Davis are considerations, but I see Mike Burton, the FB, in the list of 4, who will be essential in a multi-role presence, special teams, in the backfield, or now, due to the Blake Bell injury, perhaps taking snaps as a blocking TE. He could sub in as a blocking TE. That would mean no F/A Tight End is sought. However, like the approach of finding a Veteran F/A. Bell might take eight weeks to recover from surgery and rehab. Of course, RoJo might make the roster as the #4 RB. This view shows that Ealy and Fleet-Davis are the two RBs on the PS.
So far, I like Isiah Pacheco for his speed, burst, power, and talent as a receiver out of the backfield. He is also the top KR specialist for Dave Toub. I see him as the #2 RB behind CEH. Derrick Gore has been waived with an injury settlement. If he clears waivers, he could be brought back and placed on the IR. RoJo had a very nice game on Thursday, and I now see how to get him on the roster. That is probably a wise move. Adding a 4th RB places pressure on where my roster prediction would have a subtraction to make room for Jones.
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We have all seen the ground attack falter, and all close to the Chiefs are concerned about it. However, I think much of the problem can be found in the offensive line. It is a failing that must get worked out. There is no reason, in my mind, for the Running game to average less than 4 YPC, or the 3.8 like they did against the Packers, or 2.6 like they did against the Commanders, or let alone a measly 2.7 YPC like they did against the Bears. The RBs are not helping, though.
Near and Dear Offensive Line – 9 Roster, 3 PS
It all appears to me to be settled. However, I remain disturbed about the OL and the 4 C’s (Cohesiveness, Coordination, Continuity, and Communication). So much of the problem seems to relate to the ROT and who the SW/T will be.
Let’s start with the well-settled and powerful IOL: (1) Creed Humphrey-C -Anchors the Front Five. Geoff Schwartz, Mitchell’s brother, calls Creed Humphrey a machine:
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If Creed nails it, (2) Trey Smith does as well. Here’s what Brian Baldinger had to say about Trey Smith:
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Smith personifies playing the game with a bit of violence. Ya’ gotta love it! See a pre-season video example here:
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LG – Joe Thuney. You may recall that the year before he was signed, I admired Thuney as a technician and wished the Chiefs could acquire him. I’ll be danged if they didn’t get it done. I love the guy. Completely solid at LOG.
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The Chiefs have a powerful IOL, and I am incredibly satisfied with these starters.
On the left side, (4) Orlando Brown, Jr. – LOT is a clear starter and, in my view, far better than many think (No, he did not play well enough for Top OT Money). But then the right side becomes the area of concern. (5) ROT Andrew Wylie will probably earn the starter role. However, there have been problems on the right side, no matter who Andy Heck trots out on the field. Wiley has not been a “knock-em dead” ROT, but he has the experience and was a solid player in 2021 after Niang was lost due to injury. On opening day, he will be the ROT. (6) Geron Christian has not shined on the right or left side, but I suspect his role will be the SW/T. In pre-season, he gave up no sacks and only one pressure. (7) Darian Kinnard, who I had great hopes for, has not panned out as a starter. I have heard talk about using him on the interior and tackle. I cannot say if that is valid information from the Chief Coaching staff. It had been my thinking that Christian would end up as the SW/T, but he has not outplayed Wylie. Mike Caliendo has had his shot, and so far, Vitaliy Gurman has shown some promise in this off-season.
Roderick Johnson is in the mix but has not made headway. The sad part of the outlook is that Lucas Niang is on the PUP. The earliest he could appear would be week four, though I think it will be more like week six.
Prince Tega Wanogho heads an extensive list of players that have fallen short of being a lock as the starter at ROT. Caliendo, Tega Wanogho, and probably Vitaliy Gurman go to the PS. That’s my guess at this point. I guess that Johnson will be released.
If you see this list of players, it is a solid OL with good depth. I think the coaching staff sees the value of both (8) Austin Reiter and Nick (9) Allegretti. Both have Chiefs NFL Game experience. Reiter has been a starter at Center and also time playing OG. With his significant time as a Chief., he knows the playbook and blocking scheme. These factors make him a valuable depth player.
Allegretti and Reiter are the Depth players on the interior for both OG Center roles, which keeps his position on the active roster significant. Austin has experience as a starter at Center. I can see where the Chiefs could start the season with only 8 players for the OL. They have done that in the past.
The SW/ role will go to Geron Christian which may be disturbing because Geron Christian has not been a “wow” addition to the OL. I attribute that to the fact he is new to the Chiefs, Reid’s playbook, and the blocking scheme. Having started As both a right and left OT appears to me to give him a leg up for the role.
If I had to guess who the Chiefs might bring aboard to solve the shortcomings, I agree with BJ Kissel of KCSN, who believes the right solution is to sign F/A OT Eric Fisher. I like Fisher and supported him all along. To do that might take some dough, but when Lucas Niang returns to the fold, the Chief’s OL would be even stronger. I know that is part of the anticipation of who will make the roster and who won’t.
Andrew Wylie is a steady hand at ROT. I want Lucas Niang back ASAP for the role, but we may have to wait until mid-season for his effective return. Wylie is dependable at ROT. He played OG as well earlier with the Chiefs. Our IOL is likely the best in the NFL – Thuney, Humphrey, and Smith. At LOT, Orlando Brown is a solid and dependable player.
ESPN ranks the Chiefs OL as the top group in the NFL.
I can only agree to the extent that I believe they will be successful in protecting Mahomes and opening holes for the running game at a very high level. I certainly look forward to getting Lucas Niang back on the crew. I think the OL depth is good as well. The only newcomer to the NFL is Kinnard. Allegretti, Wylie, and Christian are all experienced NFL Hands. Despite the OL needing work on the run-game blocking, we are good to roll.
Because I had seen Christian play as a Texan, I believed then and believe now he would be an excellent addition to the Chiefs OL for the Swing Tackle Role. However, he has played better than is perceived. More time with the playbook and translating that to the field will iron things out for Christian.
Prince Taga Wanogho is also competing for a roster spot. Wanogho has experience in Kansas City, serving as a backup left tackle last season. Christian has been one of the team’s better performers, with a single pressure allowed during the preseason.
As Christian gets on board with Heck & Co., and Reid’s playbook, I believe he will progress quickly in the SW/T Role.
Darian Kinnard is a rookie with a lot of pluses. However, he had some weaknesses exposed with footwork and pad level. I was probably far too optimistic about him in the beginning. If the Chiefs decide to go with 4 RBs and a FB, it may be Kinnard starts the season on the PS. Some observers believe that since he was a draft pick, he is one of the 9 OL. If the Chiefs use ten players, then Kinnard will surely be among that group.
I wouldn’t mind signing Eric Fisher for the OL at Tackle. He is a solid and dependable player who knows KC, Reid’s playbook and blocking scheme. However, I don’t know what kind of dough would be required. He is still an available F/A.
The Chiefs showed their hand in trying to sign former Ram’s TE, which at least allows me to speculate that the Coaching staff doesn’t see either Bushman or Franks as a viable 4th TE until Blake Bell can return.
The roster above has 2 QBs, 4 TEs, 6 WRs, 3 RBs & a FB, and 9 OL–25 players. I accounted for 25 players on Defense in the previous Article. Above I covered alternatives such as for WRs, RBs, and the OL. Add in three Specialists, and I arrive at 53 (25 Defense and 25 Offense. The final three are the Specialists: PK-Harrison Butker, PU-Tommy Townsend, and LS-James Winchester.
Standby. The next wave of cuts is about to occur.
Last note: The Chiefs honored Len Dawson to open the game after the Kick Return. Mahomes lined up in the Choir Style huddle and let the play clock expire. Then the Packers declined the penalty, giving the nod to #16. The Ref, Craig Wrolstad, called the penalty on #16. This is the stuff that makes the heart skip a beat.
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Lasting Thought
I recall all the years of Lenny Dawson. He will be missed.
It’s hard not to think of one and not the other. Stram also spent time as a color commentator. Lenny and
Hank shares this too! – Dick Raphael photo credit
Thank you, “Lenny the Cool” Dawson, from the bottom of my heart. You are missed!
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David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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