Kansas City Chiefs Ransom Hawthorne

There Can Only Be One: The Race For MVP

Ransom Hawthorne December 1, 2018 No Comments

There Can Only Be One: The Race For MVP

by Ransom Hawthorne | December 1, 2018

From day one, it looked like Patrick Mahomes was destined to walk away as the league’s MVP. In recent days, however, other contenders have arisen, and a high turnover game, in LA, has led a number of NFL media types to declare others more worthy. In a race with only one winner, is Chiefs’ QB really the most worthy, or should the crown go to another. Determining this requires a dive into not just stats, but what each candidate truly means to their team. Only by examining the totality of raw data, and situational impact, can the true MVP come into focus. Vegas odds makers think Brees, Mahomes, Luck, Rivers, Goff and Gurley have the best odds. Since River’s and Goff’s chances basically rely on one of the top three falling off a cliff, we’ll ignore them, and focus in on Brees, Mahomes, Luck and Gurley. First, the stats (pre-Cowboys game).

Brees Stats: Saints offense has been ruthlessly efficient, under Brees. Posting a 76.4% completion and only two interceptions, it’s nowonder that Saints lead the league in points per drive (3.76) and TDs per drive .449. If there’s one nit-pick, with Brees’ game, it’s that he’s putting up these stats with relatively easy throws. Brees is currently 9th lowest, in the league, in average intended air yards (IAY). This stat basically measures how far a QB is attempting to throw the ball. He saw dramatic improvement, in this area, after facing a weak Falcon’s team, as prior to that, he was ranked 2nd to last, beating only to Derrick Carr in IAY. He’s also benefited from a sure-handed receiving core, that ranks 19th in drops. Brees has 29 TDs and 8.8 yards per attempt on the season.

Mahomes Stats: In his first year starting, Mahomes has posted 37 TDs, a 67.5% completion rate and has led the Chiefs to the top of the board in scoring, trailing only the Saints, in both points per drive and TDs per drive. Mahomes is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Unlike Brees, Mahomes has made his living on deep throws, which tends to drive your completion% down a bit. Mahomes ranks 6th in IAY (9.1), and that is in spite of Chiefs being one of the league leaders in screen passes, which drives down IAY. Criticisms of Mahomes have boiled down to turnovers, and supporting cast. He has the 12th highest interception% (2.6) in the league, which, while better than Watson or Trubisky, is not great. Mahomes’ targets have fared pretty well in the separation department, leading to a lot of open throws, but they’ve also had butterfingers, at times. Chiefs are 7th, in the league, in dropped passes.

Luck Stats: After starting the year 1-5, Luck has brought the Colts back into the playoff race, rattling off five straight wins. He’s got 32 TDsthis year, with a 68.4% completion rate and a 2.5% interception rate. Like Brees, Luck’s numbers have benefited from a lot of short passes with an IAY of just 7.3, that’s 8th lowest. Luck’s weapons have not been very good, as Colts have the 3rd most drops, in the NFL. He is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. Colts rank 5th in points per drive and TDs per drive.

Todd Gurley: Gurley has rushed for the 2nd most yards in the league (1,043) and has the 2nd most attempts, at 210. He’s averaging 5 yards per carry, tied for 9th, in that category with Elliot and McCaffery. He is also ranked 9th, in receiving yards, among RBs. He is tied for 4th, in yards per reception, among RBs (10.3). Gurley ranks first among all players in yards from scrimmage (1,484). Gurley has faced the 3rd least instances of 8 or more defenders in the box. That basically means teams don’t load the box against him very much, just 8.57% of the time. By contrast, Hunt faces a loaded box 15.47% of the time, the 15th least, in the NFL.

A few things jump out from the stats. Despite Brees’ low IAY, his completion percentage is still ridiculously good and he’s barely turned the ball over, at all. He’s got the Saints 1st in scoring, per drive, and that’s hard to ignore. Mahomes is nipping at his heels, and makes some more difficult, and impressive throws, but his turnovers have started to tick up and could prove a problem. Luck’s best case is based on the quality of his supporting cast. While the volume that Gurley has handled is impressive, you’d like to see an MVP be 1st in some other statistical category. If it comes down to pure Stats, Drew Brees is the MVP.

Circumstantial Evidence: Brees: Stats never tell the whole story. At the end of the day, being the MVP is your importance to the team. How a team performs without a player, or when that player has a bad game, tells you a whole lot more, about their impact, than a few flawed stats. Drew Brees’ two worst games of the season came against the Giants and Vikings. In those games, Brees threw for just 1 TD, and 1 INT combined. Saints won both of those games by 10 or more points. Brees has been great, but he’s got a solid team surrounding him that gets the job done, even when Brees isn’t on his A-game. When it comes to they eye test, you see more amazing catches, in his highlights, than amazing throws.

Circumstantial Evidence: Mahomes: I games where Mahomes throws, at least two picks, Chiefs are 1-2. While you’d like to see him cut down on the turnovers, in big games, this speaks to his impact on the team. Chiefs can’t win unless Mahomes is playing out of his mind, or the opposing team is just bad(Jags, Cardinals). Even in the two games Chiefs have lost, they did so by just three points, each time. Even on a day where Mahomes makes mistakes, he’s still the only reason Chiefs have a chance to come back from those mistakes. His highlights are loaded with throws that other QBs can’t, or won’t make. A lot of outlets predicted, before the season, that Chiefs would miss the playoffs. Frankly, with any QB, besides Mahomes, they probably would have. That’s how you make a case for MVP.

Circumstantial Evidence: Luck: In games where Luck has a Quarterback Rating over 100, Colts are 5-1, and that one loss came by three points to the Texans, another playoff contender. In all other games, this year, Colts are 1-4. There can be no doubt that, as Luck goes, so the Colts go. Last year, without Luck, Colts won just four games. Perhaps the one wrinkle in Luck’s bid, is quality of opponents. His string of five wins has come against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans and Dolphins. Not exactly murderer’s row. Still, Luck has made some really impressive throws to keep his team in the mix.

Circumstantial Evidence: Gurley: Gurley has been really solid, this year, but how much of that is his talent and how much is McVay’s scheme? His backup, Malcom Brown, is averaging 5 yards per carry, and 10.4 yards per catch. Those numbers are essentially identical to what Gurley is putting up. In Rams two toughest games of the season (Saints and Chiefs), Gurley saw his lowest number of carries. He also saw his least targets, vs the Chiefs. Neither seemed to have an out-sized impact on the game. A good indicator, of what a running back can do, by himself, is often his yards after contact. PFF released a list of the top 13 and Gurley isn’t on it. Gurley has good vision, and he’s decently elusive, but he’s not a true burner so, as good as he’s been, he’s mostly taking advantage of a scheme that keeps defenders out of the box, and uses a quality OL, and misdirection, to tee up big runs.

If we’re going purely by circumstantial evidence, it’s clearly between Mahomes and Luck, for the MVP. Mahomes started a lot hotter, but Luck has been better, of late. How each finishes the season could be the tie-breaker, in this category, but just based on strength of schedule, you have to be more impressed by what Mahomes is doing. Gurley probably shouldn’t have ever really been in the conversation for MVP. What he’s done is more of an indication that Sean McVay should be coach of the year.

When you weight the balance of stats, and circumstance, I think you have to say that Mahomes is the MVP. As impressive as Brees has been, he hasn’t been the be all and end all for his team, like Luck and Pat. Luck has a strong case, but Mahomes is playing a tougher schedule and putting up some monster stats. If PM doesn’t continue his record-breaking performance, to finish out the year, you could very well see a Colt crowned MVP. Gurley is an after-thought. He might be fun to write about, for those who want to think differently, but there’s no reasonable case for him being the MVP. May the best man win. At the end of the day, that man should be in Kansas City. Go Chiefs.

If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to join the Discussion, [GO HERE.](http://arrowheadone.com/there-can-only-be-one-the-race-for-mvp/#disqus_thread)