If These Two Have A Great Year, So Will the Chiefs
“Attention all Walmart shoppers: only one more day until Christmas!” At least that how it feels around here right now! The expectations are sky high but it means nothing when your team is still 0-0 in the won-loss column. However, it’s easy to see the Kansas City Chiefs going a long way this year… and I see it that way, not just because yours truly is a homer (well, maybe a little). So, who has to succeed on the Chiefs roster for the Chiefs to have the success we’re hoping for? If you said everyone on the team you’re probably right but I’m thinking that with all things being equal… who would be that “touchstone” player, and if they have a good year, the Chiefs will probably have a good year? As it may be necessary for this to happen on defense and offense, if the following two have a great year, so will the Chiefs. Who am I referring to?
Chris Conley and Phillip Gaines. So let’s take peek through the looking-glass to see what a good/great year by each of these gentlemen could mean to our home-town heroes.
Chris Conley
This past offseason, wide receiver Chris Conley has embraced the role of pupil and apprentice. He’s not only shown a willingness to be journeyman Jeremy Maclin’s understudy but go the extra mile in moving to where Maclin resides and has taken up the positive workout habits of a player who has already had success in the league.
Last year Chris Conley was going through a college-to-pros adjustment period and I recall veteran Jason Avant telling him, “be able to make mistakes and be able to forgive yourself.”
Sage advice but, anytime you’re thinking about your mistakes instead of refining what you already know you’re going to struggle. Last season Chris Conley finished the year with 17 receptions for 199 yards receiving and 1 touchdown (there’s a distinct possibility Conley had that much production on the first day training camp). This offseason the Chiefs general manager John Dorsey brought in wideout Rod Streater who is similar in size but has had success in the league previously. The reason Rod Streater was traded on NFL Alchemy Weekend is very likely due to the progress of Chris Conley. While I’d have liked to see the Chiefs keep two such players of Conley and Streater’s abilities on the same roster, Conley’s offseason development probably made Streater expendable (plus there were simply too many other wide receivers the Chiefs wanted to keep on their roster and Streater may have been the highest profile guy another team was interested in).
The essential question as it relates to Chris Conley is… what would great improvement on his part mean to the offense as a whole? To begin with… it would mean Alex Smith is having a very great year too. If Smith is having a good year that bodes well for the team as a whole. So, why not just say that if Alex Smith does well the team will do well. It’s a good point but it doesn’t necessarily mean that a second wide receiver who could step in for Jeremy Maclin would have developed and the playoffs last year completely illustrate that need.
If Chris Conley does that well, he could begin to be thought of as the heir apparent to the number one wide receiver and the not only will this coming season be a good one offensively but the offense grows for the future.
The idea of “The Next Man Up” is a bit of an oversimplification of what really needs to happen for the Chiefs organization to grow. The Chiefs need players to develop and step up from one season to the next and I think Chris Conley is a man for that job in 2016. If Conley is able to quadruple his output this year then the odds go way up that Chiefs will have had a great season.I’ll bet you’re thinking that if he just doubles his output that would be good… and because you might think, like a lot of others, that the throws will broken-up between many other wide receivers too. Not only is it less likely on an Andy Reid run team (more on that in the next paragraph) but it isn’t likely for Alex Smith to all of a sudden become a QB who spreads the ball around like that either.
So what about an Andy Reid run offense? You think 800 yards and 68 catches is asking too much of Chris Conely? Well, first of all let’s talk about the WR I beleve he’ll be replacing: Rod Streater. In Rod Streater’s second season he had 888 yards and 60 receptions. More relevant to Andy Reid is JMac. In Jeremy Maclin’s second season his numbers looked like this: 964 yards and 70 receptions. You don’t think that’s possible with #1 WR Jeremy Maclin needing to see the ball as much as he has and playing the primary receiver role? Well, in Maclin’s second season (2010) primary receiver DeSean Jackson had 1,056 yards receiving on 95 catches… that’s right the same year JMac went 964/70… and now here’s the juicy part –> JMac had 10 TD that year. So, is it outrageous to think Chris Conley could have those kinds of numbers? Well, dont expect that out of Albert Wilson… or rookie Tyreek Hill who is still learnign the playbook… or De’Anthony Thomas who is doing better but will never probably amount to more than a hood ornament for the offense.
Oh, you say, “The Chiefs would never throw the ball that much!” In the Chiefs third game of the preseason — what I like to call the “Crystal Ball Game” because it often foretells what the regular season will look like — Alex Smith threw the ball 30 times in the first half. T-H-I-R-T-Y times. Please let that sink in for a moment. The Chiefs averaged a pass every minute of the first half of play! You don’t think that’s significant? In half of the Chiefs games in 2015, Alex Smith threw the ball less than 30 times (in those games Alex Smith averaged 24 passes per 60 minutes of play). You should also not doubt that Alex Smith’s role has changed, evolved, and progressed this offseason. Not only is that true but it is being noticed in San Diego too. In an article from the San Diego Union-Tribune called, “Scouting the Alex Smith-led Chiefs” it says, “Bolts no longer have huge QB edge.”
What it all means is that Chris Conley may very well be the next great wide out for the Kansas City Chiefs and fans should not be at all surprised if that happens.
Phillip Gaines
If Phillip Gaines has a great year it will set up almost everything DC Bob Sutton is hoping to do. Does everyone else need to come through? Sure, but if they all come through and Phillip Gaines does not… it may mean that the defensive scheme has to change in such a dramatic fashion that it will affect the outcome of games and ultimately the season. When the Chiefs can take the other team’s two most potent wide receivers and play tight bump-and-run man coverage it frees up 9 other defensive players to take care of a reduced number of problems. On the other hand, if the Chiefs must move an extra man to one side in coverage it opens up the rest of the field for their opponents not only in the passing game but for their rushing attack. If Gaines is so good that opposing QBs begin to throw towards Marcus Peters again, then the Masterminds at One Arrowhead Way will be throwing a mensa party with brain teasers all around.
Seth Keysor from Arrowhead Pride said this recently about Phillip Gaines,
I think they’re high on Gaines, and IMO it’s for good reason https://t.co/hB1nWBcZri https://t.co/tMHDDEUIEU
— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) September 8, 2016
I have shared this tidbit before but it’s worth repeating… Phillip Gaines played man-coverage in college a staggering 80% of the time. There’s not going to be a whole lot of situations he hasn’t faced while playing on that CB island. While Gaines playing well would be terrific he likely won’t have to carry the burden on one side alone. Sutton will move him around, giving him time at the slot and resting him plenty and utilizing new CB Kenneth Ackers. The point is… while Chris Conley needs to step up, Phillip Gaines may be getting more support around him.
What do you think Chiefs fans? Are there two other guys more important to the success of the Chiefs in 2016 than Phillip Gaines and Chris Conley?