Why the Chiefs Defense is Not As Bad As it Looks – Context is key. The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely obliterated Denver, on Thursday night. In this week’s game, against a quality Green Bay defense, without Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are liable to be on the receiving side, of such a drubbing. Lest you decide to do something else with your Sunday evening, rest assured, the game will still be worth watching. The Packers will offer the most balanced offense that K.C. has seen to date, and a good test for DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense that finally seems to be clicking a little bit. There’s even a case to be made that they are better than fans realize. Don’t believe me? Check the stats and remember, context is key.
Note: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team’s success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA: Football outsiders has a lot of great stats, but one of my favorites is DVOA. It’s basically a measure of how your opponents performed, against you, relative to their season average. The Chiefs defense ranks 20th in DVOA this year. That’s not great, or terrible, but the breakdown is interesting. They are 29th against the run, and 4th against the pass. Given that passing defense is a lot more important than rushing defense, that’s actually not a terrible spot to be in. Further, K.C. has faced the 5th hardest schedule, of any defense, in the NFL, so you might expect them to struggle, especially while trying to digest a new system (context).
Outside of Detriot, every team Chiefs have faced is top 15 in rushing offense DVOA. Two are top 3.
— ChieflyBacon (@3GravyCats) October 22, 2019
Drive Stats: Another way to bring the defense’s performance into focus, is to examine drive stats. Time of possession, and turnovers, can lead to a final score, that doesn’t really reflect the flow of the game. By just examining the performance, per drive, it’s easier to compare teams, who’ve played different numbers of snaps. Chiefs rank 15th, in the NFL, in points per drive allowed, at 2.03. That’s solidly average. In yards per drive, however, they rank 26th. Not much of a surprise there as Kansas City has largely been a… bend but don’t break defense… all year. What is interesting is the Chiefs turnover per drive rate, which ranks an impressive 7th in the league. If K.C. can manage to play the run better, like they did against Denver, they’ll see more opportunities to force turnovers. Getting to manageable 3rd downs, should also help decrease the number of sustained drives they give up. The Chiefs are ranked 2nd to last in plays allowed, per drive.
Conclusion: There’s good and bad in the Chiefs defense. Green Bay is as tough as any opponent they’ve faced, so don’t expect a shut-out. As long as the team can continue to improve, especially against the run, there’s plenty of room for optimism and and being competitive, this week, would be a great start. K.C. is still a team that should be focused on January. What happens without Mahomes, and Chris Jones, doesn’t matter too much right now, with the rest of the division falling into irrelevancy. The Chiefs are good on 3rd and long so they just need to get there more often. Expect them to hold the Packers to 27 or less points this week. It’s up to Matt Moore to score 28. Let’s hope he does. Go Chiefs.
Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne
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