Laddie Morse
It’s that time of the year when even regular season games are like playoff games because they have such great playoff implications. In other words, this game is important to the Kansas City Chiefs and this game is important to the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs carry an 8-and-4 record into this game and the BIlls carry a 6-and-6 record into this game. The Chiefs must win because if they hope to stay in step with the other AFC leaders, they must win this game. The Bills must win because if they lose this game, they are likely out of the playoffs all together.
The Chances
The big question is… which team is more hungry to win this game or… which team is more desperate? If the Chiefs lose… they will be filled with questions about their make-up and whether or not they are a team that can win it all? If the Bills lose this game… they will eb riddled with questions about their roster make-up and whether or not they are good enough to win it all, or even make the playoffs. Here’s a site called playoffstatus.com that ferrets out the possibilities. They predict that if the Bills lose to the Chiefs , and the Jags beat the Browns, and the Ravens beat or tie the Rams… the Bills will not make the playoffs this year.
Here’s the NYTimes.com in an article called, “How the Buffalo BillsCan Make the Playoffs” in which they say
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“The Buffalo Bills (6-6) had a bye last
week, but their chances of making the
playoffs increased to 20 percent.”
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Plus, they give you the option of picking a team to win and if the Chiefs win this week, the Bills liklihood of making the playoffs goes down to 10% and if the win it goes up to 34%. Either way, the Chiefs need to win out to insure their own chances of playign in Arrowhead throughout the playoffs. For a team struggling at wide receiver, that appears critical… unless that is… they fix that plroblem and fix it, THIS WEEK!
It’s hard to say which team will be more motivated, but I like the Chiefs chances just because they’re playing at home.
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Let’s not forget that this tweet was published the week following the Chiefs win over the Dolphins in Frankfurt. However, the Home field advantage has worked well for K.C. when it comes to the playoffs… especially if you count the Bengals out of the race, which I do since they are currently 6-and-6 and in last place in the AFC North. Also, their remaining schedule is rough: Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, Browns… and… their QB, Joe Burrow, is sidelined for the rest of the year. Knock on wood!
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Coming Off the Bye Week
We Chiefs fans like to make a lot of Andy Reid’s record coming off the Bye Week, but what about Sean McDermott, the Bills Head Coach? Here’s Ryan Tracy talking to Joe Marino (@JoeMarino), a Buffalo analyst, chatting about about that exact subject (0:39):
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6-and-0. Wow… let’s take that in for a second. McDermott is perfect when coming off a Bye Week. Again… wow!
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A Short History Lesson
Who can forget the “13 Second” game… also known as, “When things are grim, be the Grim Reaper” game (1:29).
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Another view… from the fans in the stands (0:26)…
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These Bills Aren’t Half Bad
Bill Parcells used to say: “You are what your record says you are.“ That being said, when you look over the Buffalo Bills team stats, they are much better than their record says they are. That’s a good reason for K.C. to take them seriously.
Sportsnaut.com has an article out called: “4 Stats to Know, Matchups to Watch For Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs” in which author, Matt Johnson says:
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“There’s a bit of a narrative right now that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is having a down season and some even blame him for the losses. At 6-6, there’s a legitimate chance Buffalo doesn’t make it into the postseason this year. However, Allen isn’t the problem. According to RBSDM.com, Allen ranks second in the NFL in Success rate (53.4 percent), outplaying Mahomes (50.1 percent), Dak Prescott (52.4 percent) and Tua Tagovailoa (51.3 percent). He also ranks fourth in Completion Percentage over Expectation (5.5 percent) and has the third-highest Expected Points Added per Play (0.227).”
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Josh Allen has always made the Chiefs defense jumpy. This defense has become the best of the Patrick Mahomes era so it will be a very interesting game to watch to see if they can give Josh Allen the fits!
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A Real Rivalry
We established that for a rivalry to be real, each team needs to have recently won against that other team. That’s exactly what we have with the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. Here a look at the results of their last five (5) contests. The data below was taken from footballdb.com and then revised to fir our screen:
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Note: the “13 Second Game” was now two years ago (next month).
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The Bills defense has been better than you would think a 6-and-6 team could be. All the while, the Chiefs WRs have been less than impressive. See David Bell’s piece from yesterday called: “Chiefs: The WR Room Is Not Fixed But Will Improve In 2023.” If the Chiefs have made progress in their WR room, and if the Chiefs can get pressure on Josh Allen, the outcome should weigh in favor of K.C..
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My Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 21.
Looks like it’s going to be another nail-biter.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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