Putting the 2021 season’s ending in the disappointment department aside, I have already been taking a look at 2022. There is time to anticipate and maybe even salivate on the opportunities, the subtractions as well as the additions yet to come. Herein, I try to set up all the scenarios that will face Brett Veach & Co., as the offseason progresses. No matter what happens, Veach & Co. will have a lot of tasks to complete before we can visualize what is going to happen in the draft.
First, a Look at the Draft
As things stand now, the Chiefs do not have a 5th round pick having traded that in the Orlando Brown, Jr. acquisition. Nor will they have a 6th round pick having conditionally traded it to obtain Melvin Ingram. I don’t know what the conditions were, but I must posit that those conditions were met with Ingram playing in K.C. a good percentage of the snaps after arriving. Here is a look at where the picks are at this point, inserting the 2022, 3rd round pick — unknown position — at this point, but somewhere around 105.
- Round 1, Pick 30
- Round 2, Pick 30
- Round 3, Pick 30
- Round 3, Pick Abt Pick 105 (Compensation Pick due to Ryan Poles being hired as GM)
- Round 3, Pick Hoped for because Eric Bieniemy obtains a HC Job? That would be perfection, wouldn’t it?
- Round 4, Pick 30
- Round 5, Pick 30 (Traded to the Ravens in the Brown acquisition)
- Round 6, Pick 30 (Traded to the Steelers in the Ingram acquisition)
- Round 7, Pick ?? (via Minnesota in Mike Hughes trade)
- Round 7, Pick ??
- Round 7, Pick ?? (Yasir Durant trade to New England)
*Note: I think that the Chiefs will have additional round 7 compensation picks — awaiting for information on that.
This appears to me to be a well positioned draft for Brett Veach, to strengthen the defense and perhaps obtain a WR to boot. The Chiefs will have 4 strong draft picks in the first 106 or 107 picks and then will pick again in the 4th at pick 131.
Money Makes the World Go ‘Round
K.C. needs to keep LOT Orlando Brown Jr. and hope that Safety Tyrann Mathieu’s personal consideration isn’t just to be the highest-paid safety in the NFL. I think it is likely in the process that Orlando Brown will be franchise tagged (CBS Sports projects the franchise tag of a Tackle could be $16.662M). At the same time, he is not a perfect fit for Kansas City’s offense. He will have to continue to adjust and adapt his skillset to the blocking scheme needs. K.C. also needs to keep DT Jarran Reed and DE Melvin Ingram.
Realism strikes though when you realize that right now, the available cap monies stand at +$4.142M, for the top Top 51. When Charles Goldman wrote about releasing DE Clark and LB Anthony Hitchens recently. to gain significant cap space by reworking contracts, I was consequently, immediately on board. For now, K.C. ranks 21st in available Cap Space. Something must get done.
No matter how you view keeping Frank Clark, or Anthony Hitchens, each will have to take pretty big pay cut to remain on the Chiefs roster. Reed is also in somewhat the same boat. Mathieu is the special case and I’d like him to stay, but the cap is going to determine what the Chiefs do. That is a huge struggle for Brett Veach and it will be a problem that must be worked through before considering the draft.
Top 51 Cap: $203,071,622; Cap Space $4,141,984; Dead Cap $2.309M (Numbers from Spotrac)
Age
The Chiefs have 52 signed players with an average age of 25.96.
Team Needs? It Depends!
Departing the Chiefs will be Edge DE Frank Clark and LB Anthony Hitchens. Both of those releases make a lot of sense. Yes, there will be dead money, but it also buys back about $26M in cap space ($19.5M and $6.8M respectively).
Dealing with the LB Role
Hitch has never lived up to his billing as a Linebacker. He cannot defend against the pass and his speed is overshadowed by both Willie Gay, Jr. and Nick Bolton. At the end of the season, and in the playoffs, the young guys superseded Hitchens in play.
The Chiefs have moved Brendan Daly to the LB Coach position. I think the LB position will be in flux for multiple reasons. We know that DC Steve Spagnuolo and former LB Coach Matt House gave the nod to Anthony Hitchens as the defensive signal caller, but we saw Bolton handle the role admirable when Hitch was out.
We know that Dorian O’Daniel has not gotten any time in games except on special teams. 2020 film study by Ryan Tracy of RGR Football illustrated that had D’OD’s success as a LB. Since I have no inside information, there must be a reason that O’Daniel didn’t get game snaps, but the film study showed he played the position, the ball, and made tackles as you would expect an off-the-ball LB to do. Not only this, but O’Daniel has sideline-to-sideline speed and is capable of aerial defense as well. Perhaps Brendan will have a more attuned eye and will expect significantly more of O’Daniel than did House or Spags. While it remains a puzzler, O’Daniel has got to be a consideration for 2022.
There are other possible developments. In 2019, Brett Veach signed Darius Harris to the roster. Laddie had a favorable impression of Harris in preseason participation. He didn’t make the roster and was released, then returned in 2020, being placed on the active roster in September and in week 16 Harris saw playing time. In that game against the Falcons, he had a fumble recovery. It seems likely he will be back for 2022.
The Chiefs added LB Christian Rozeboom in 2020 — formerly on the Los Angeles Rams Practice Squad — but he didn’t make the active roster. The Chiefs acquired him in the offseason before 2021. He is a potential player as well. Ben Niemann has taken a good number of snaps, but rather than improve, in years 2 and 3, he regressed.
Add it all up and we can project that Brett Veach will add LB to the team needs list and it will be a high priority pick or a significant signing of a Free Agent.
Veach Strategy Points
- The Chiefs have invested in Linebackers two sequential years in a row. Is a 3rd year planned? I hope this happens.
- Hitchens departure weakens the group a bit, but a draft pick would solve the loss, high enough to move in as the 3rd LB in the 4-3 base defense.
- Brendan Daly should fit Dorian O’Daniel, or Darius Harris, into part of the LB mix.
A Look at the Edge
This is going to be the biggest focus of the 2022 offseason. DE Frank Clark has never lived up to his hype and salary level. Sure, the 2019 postseason was where he made his waves, but not since. Clark also has legal problems out in California. At the same time, I don’t think the legal issues will result in jail time. Fines? Sure.
If Frank Clark is released, we have two immediate needs to resolve from Free Agency for Edge players. The Chiefs need to retain Alex Okafor for the rotation as well as resolve the contract for Melvin Ingram. That is two players who contribute to the DE role. Josh Kaindoh, Mike Danna, and Austin Edwards could be part of the depth picture. At this point, you cannot count on any of the three to be a starter.
Edge Player Acquisition Strategy: Next Points
By releasing Clark, Brett Veach would have to take a varied approach to having multiple dependable players for the edge role. Youth, speed, and a diverse pass rush are a must.
- Is there a Free Agent DE available, besides Melvin Ingram, who fits the Chiefs need and team persona with less capital investment?
- With Clark gone, there is a need for two DEs even considering Alex Okafor and Melvin Ingram are tendered? Maybe Round 1 and round 4 picks?
- If there is no F/A to target, then certainly the DE must be the highest need for the upcoming draft and probably should remain so.
The Defensive Tackle Role
As far as I can tell, the Chiefs are pretty well set at DT, especially if Jarran Reed is re-tendered. Derrick Nnadi is solid against the run. Khalen Saunders can be in the mix. Chris Jones is a force from the DT role. Laddie observed that Jones lost weight in 2021, so that he could move outside. He also noted that if Jones bulked back up a bit, he would be more effective against the big men on the opposing OL interior. I agree heartily with that.
Laddie and I both targeted DT during the last offseason, but that didn’t work out. Since it is a presumed goal of Brett Veach to succeed in rebuilding the defensive front four this year, a draft pick who fits the Chiefs needs has got to be a top four rounds focus for our GM… or a Free Agency target.
Veach Decision Points
- A DT rotation that includes Chris Jones, Jarran Reed, Derrick Nnadi is a foundation, but requires re-signing Reed for 2022.
- Free Agency is not the way to build a team and get the cap under control, hence the Chiefs need to draft a DT!
A Cornerback and a Safety
Tyrann Mathieu, at Safety, may just be sacrificed to the NFL Cap Space Gods, but it would behoove the Chiefs to draft a safety who fits the future. Mathieu is not getting younger. Drafting his replacement for 3 years down the road and adding that safety to the mix would be a plus. In terms of active Safeties, I believe that it’s time for Dan Sorensen to depart. It is also time to give Armani Watts the reps that aid the back-end rotation. This would allow a newcomer time to orient and get up to NFL speed.
One other player needs mention: Zayne Anderson. He is a Chief and has the right aggressiveness, especially for how the Chiefs use a SS. Sure, his exuberance cost the Chiefs in a game with a roughing the kicker penalty. Also, recall how impressive Devon Key was during the last preseason.
The Chiefs also have solid players in the Cornerback role: L’Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward along with Rashad Fenton give us a threesome. What is missing is a sure-fired Outside Shutdown Corner. As with every year, I think the Chiefs need to draft a CB. Mike Hughes could be part of the mix and he adds value to special teams. Dicaprio Bootle, Deandre Baker, and Chris Lammons should also be considered. It comes down to who is doing more for the CB room than they have done in the past?
Veach Balancing Act For The Secondary
- Ward is a F/A. Fenton and Sneed are under contract. Ward is a solid outside CB, but what will it cost to get him under contract?
- Where do you invest money? Mathieu or forego securing Mathieu, sign a F/A and work on CB?
Okay, Face It: The Chiefs Need a #2 Wideout
From any angle, QB Patrick Mahomes has one big need on offense: a #2 “X” WR. Josh Gordon did not come to fruition, but his experience and skills could fulfill the #2 WR role… if… he develops and is able to get in sync with Mahomes. Newcomer, Cornell Powell, also has attributes that could also fit the need.
Brett Veach Decision Points
- Is Josh Gordon or Cornell Powell part of the answer for 2022?
- Use one of the top 4 draft picks to get the “right” WR?
- Sign a free agent that fits and go with the WR mix with which we are all familiar: Hardman, Pringle, Robinson, and #5?
Offensive Needs
The offense is set other than the WR role. With the RB’s K.C. has can go 4 deep. Adding one via F/A makes sense. Using a draft pick? Sure, maybe a 7th round pick should target a potential talent. I am sure that an offensive linemen or two can be targeted as well but “Keep Building From Within” is a key.
Dates to Manage
- March 1 – March 7: NFL Combine in Indianapolis
- March 14-16: FA Tamper Time- you can call em, you can negotiate with em, you just can’t nail down a deal
- March 16: The 2022 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4:00 p.m., New York time
- March 27-30: Annual League Meeting, The Breakers, Palm Beach, Florida
- April 4: Clubs that hired a new head coach after the end of the 2021 regular season may begin offseason workout programs.
- April 18: Clubs with returning head coaches may begin offseason workout programs
- April 20: Deadline to bring draft-eligible players to their facilities for a physical examination.
- April 22: Deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets
- April 27: Deadline for prior club to exercise Right of First Refusal to restricted free agents
- April 27: Deadline to time, test, and interview draft-eligible players
- April 28-30: NFL Draft, Las Vegas, Nevada
Summary: The “Big Picture”
The Chiefs Free Agency signings and draft picks can solve their exposures, but Brett Veach and his team of evaluator must ace each of the first four picks. Veach is focused on rebuilding the Defense’s Front Four and strengthening the defensive side of the ball for DC Steve Spagnuolo.
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David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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