This offseason, there will be two basic ways for the Kansas City Chiefs to truly upgrade at Edge Rusher (ER): 1) Sign a Free Agent, and 2) Draft one. What many fans don’t connect the dots about though, is the idea that if GM Brett Veach does not sign someone in free agency, it will place him in a risky position in which he has to draft an Edge guy. The odds that he will do nothing before the draft, are microscopically low. Why? Because Brett Veach — and his Head Honcho Andy Reid — would never want to give away the idea that they are needy going into the draft, or are predictable. That would also mean revealing a weakness, and that’s not in the cards for the Chiefs. Not this year… or any other.
Free Agency begins on March 16th and the Draft doesn’t come until 6 weeks after that, beginning on April 28th, and it’s not like you can get a great ER in Free Agency… if you don’t end up drafting one. One comes way before the other and GM Brett Veach will have to have a plan of attack long before Free Agency ever starts.
Seth Keysor recently wrote a piece called: “If I were Brett Veach, Part 1: Salary cap fun and a look at problems that need solving this offseason,” (subscription required) in which he stated:
“I know that the idea the Chiefs are in “cap hell” (or whatever version of that expression you prefer) or don’t have money to be players is going to make the rounds yet again this offseason. And yet again, it isn’t true.”
So, while many of us are of the opinion that Veach won’t be aggressive this offseason, think again.
- Three years Veach completely fixed the Safety position, signing Tyrann Mathieu and drafting Juan Thornhill, after releasing Eric Berry that same offseason.
- Two years ago Veach got L’Jarius Sneed (now the Chiefs #1 CB), Willie Gay Jr. (an excellent starting LB with upside), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (the #1 starting RB), Lucas Niang (the future at RT), and Mike Danna (a strong rotational DE).
- Then, last year he completely re-built the offensive line, a canonized pigskin miracle.
So, let’s not put anything past Brett Veach, especially when it comes to re-stocking the Defensive End position. We need to change an old chant from:
“He Can Do It, He Can Do It, He Can, He Can, to…
He Can Do It, He Can Do It, He Will, He Will!”
Getting Ready to Sign a FA or Draft a DE
Veach will most likely cut ties with DE Frank Clark. I’ve previously documented his descending performance level in K.C., but here it is in chart form:
Sure, Clark helped the Chiefs win their first Super Bowl in 50 years, and I’m grateful for that, but I think it’s time to move on from him. If the Chiefs keep Clark this year they can assuredly expect the same, or reduced levels, of performance. If they keep him he’ll cost $26.3M. If they cut him, his Dead Cap Hit is $12.9M, which means a savings of $13.4M by moving on from him this year. Yes, he’s signed for 2023 as well, but the savings next year would be, $21.35M. Seems clear that K.C. will move on from him beginning this year.
The next step will likely be re-signing Melvin Ingram. He’s been a stellar performer and also been a breath of fresh air in the locker room since his arrival in early November (2021). Brett Veach has already said he’ll probably look at players in the second phase of Free Agency. Here’s a list of the top ten Free Agent Edge Rushers as noted by Pro Football Focus — PFF — which includes:
- Chandler Jones
- Von Miller
- Jadeveon Clowney
- Randy Gregory
- Emmanuel Ogbah
- Melvin Ingram
- Haason Reddick
- Harold Landry
- Justin Houston
- Jerry Hughes
Miller and Jones will go early in FA. Clowney is a strictly hands off guy to me. Gregory is likely to re-sign with Jerry in Dallas. Those four should represent the first phase of Free Agency.
Ogbah would be my first choice after Veach nails down an agreement with Ingram. Reddick is too small for Spags system, so he’s a no. Landry is intriguing but is suited more for the 3-4 as an OLB. Justin Houston is not coming back to K.C.. Jerry Hughes will be 34 years old before next season begins and would likely return to the Bills, if anywhere.
Emmanuel Ogbah
Ogbah spent the last two seasons with the Dolphins and had 9.0 sacks in each year (so, Ogbah has had 18 sacks in the past two years while Frank Clark has had 18.5 sacks over three years). He was here in K.C. before that, but when his contract came due, he wanted to get paid and signed a two year deal with Miami for 2-years for $15M. At RGR football, I put the question to both Ryan Tray and Daniel Harms: “Could Emmanuel Ogbah be returning to K.C.?“ and Ryan was much more positive in response. Daniel Harms thought Ogbah could return, but only as a rotational piece. My point is, Ogbah could be dressed up as a replacement for Frank Clark (whether that’s true or not), while they go through the process of drafting another Edge Rusher they intend on bringing along this year. The point is to not be viewed as having a giant “need” at DE, even though that may be the case.
Drafting an Edge Rusher
The Top 10 Edge Rushers in this draft as shown by DrafTek include:
The second number from the left is a prospects overall rank in the draft. You can see, 5 Edge Rushers are ranked ahead of where the Chiefs first pick at #30 happens.
Special Note: The NFL Combine doesn’t take place until the week of March 1-to-7 so many of these ranking will change after that time.
Boye Mafe
Someone who caught my eye recently is Edge Rusher Boye Mafe out of Minnesota. DrafTek has him ranked as the #14 best Edge Rusher right now, and #97 overall. He’s displayed some quickness and agility that may make him a mid-round pick, or I can even see him jumping up to the second round. At 6-foot-4 and 265, he’s slightly bigger than Alex Okafor, but has already developed some moves. He’s #34 here and lines up all over the place, which Steve Spagnuolo should love:
DrafTek’s Top Five DL 5-Technique (DE)
Travon Walker
Walker comes from a top college program that just broke through and won the most recent Collegiate National Football Championship. He comes from a defensive line stocked with talent and some fans even think the Chiefs should go after his teammate, 6-foot-5, 330 lbs. DT Jordan Davis. While I’d be thrilled with bolstering the middle of the DL next to Chris Jones — creating an unstoppable IDL, the reality would still remain: the Chiefs are weak at DE. After the combine, Walker could shoot up to the back end of the first round in terms of value and ranking. However, that’s right where K.C. currently has a pick.
The reality is, Walker only had 6.0 sacks in 2021 and 9.5 sacks for this 3-year career at Georgia, so he may not be “the” answer.
Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 50
You’ll often hear me refer to DrafTek, but there are many prospect rating services out there. David Bell and I have talked about starting our own rankings, but there is no one be-all-end-all ranking anywhere on the planet. In fact, I’m sure each team has their own ranking and it doesn’t match any other team’s ranking. Here’s the way Daniel Jeremiah ranks the top 50 prospects (for now):
You’ll notice that Jeremiah has both Travon Walker and Jermaine Johnson II — who I cover below — as being part of his top 20 overall players. That makes drafting them more difficult for K.C. — if this ranking holds true — and that’s important since they’re both very good Edge Rushing (ER) prospects the Chiefs may be interested in.
Jermaine Johnson II
Jermaine Johnson II, out of Florida State, the same school that brought us Josh Kaindoh a year ago, would bring the Chiefs a top notch Edge Rusher who may be available at #30, but would have to fall for that to happen. Johnson had 11.5 sacks in 2021 and 18.0 over the course of his 3-year career. He also had 17.5 tackles for a loss and 24.5 in his collegiate career. Johnson spent his first two seasons at Georgia then transferred to FL. St. for his senior year.
My sentiments…
As in any other year, it looks like K.C. will have to invest in a high round pick to upgrade the Edge Rusher position for 2022.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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