Not a Mock: But 20 to 40 or So is My Key

David Bell

First Off – I want to apologize to the ArrowheadOne Community for being absent with any contributions for more than a week. I have lacked the focus and energy to do an effective job of contributing here. Mia culpa.

At first, I was going to write about a plausible mock but my enthusiasm for this waned as I prepared the piece. Then I shifted my attention to the draft which is a bit more than two weeks away. Which led to this particular missive.

I have written in prior years, that there are several factors to which I address myself each year. Here are some of my thoughts for 2024.

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• There is a high probability that 5 quarterbacks (perhaps 6) will be selected in round one
• The Chiefs have 2 primary needs: LOT and WR
• Player suitability to the Chiefs persona
• To find a player’s metrics in one simple view, I utilize the RAS output for each player
• In the past, I have watched video of a player’s performance across multiple college games
• Last but not least, how well-spoken, and intelligent I can form opinions about in Player Public Interviews

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If the first item above, happens, it is likely that Laddie’s article called, “The Bump Method on Meth” will apply.

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The Bump Method on Meth

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I grew frustrated with doing Mock Drafts this year. How can I know what is truly possible? How can I know what is on the Chiefs Big board from year to year? I reverted to how I looked at the draft in 2016 as an example. That year, I had Chris Jones as a “must draft” player, and fortunately for the Chiefs, former GM, John Dorsey did indeed select Jones in that draft. Why was this choice important? The results since then are completely obvious. At the time, CJ had a bad rap for taking plays off. In my evaluation, I then watched several complete games to see if this was true. No to that one.

Reasonable Prospect Possibilities

For Pick 32, a LOT or a trade back option

At this point, the players who played collegiately on the left side is limited. Previously I had highlighted a trade-back scenario, gaining an additional pick and selecting Patrick Paul (LOT, out of U of H). I still like that scenario. Paul is highly rated, but like all prospects he has weaknesses. Barring that, and choosing between OTs who are still likely left available at pick 32 (using PFF as a guide)… I eliminated all the higher-rated OTs for consideration.

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Mims is not a polished prospect — a level below former teammate and first round pick Broderick Jones — but he brings sky-high potential. He’ll take some developing, but trench players built like this don’t make it out of the top 50. I do like Mims but as PFF shows, he will require some development time. I don’t have a problem with that. It would indicate, that KC should bring back Donovan Smith for at least one more season.

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Barton is a tough and well-moving lineman with strong hands and a mean streak in the run game. HIs best position in the NFL is likely at Center, as he brings starting-caliber traits there. However, because the indication is that Barton would move to the interior in the NFL, I am eliminating him from consideration, but for IOL, maybe to replace Thuney a year down the road.

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I disagree with the PFF ranking (81.1). He stands 6-foot-7 and weighs in at 317. Paul’s size alone makes him worth betting on, and his improvement in his fundamentals from 2022-to-2023 was encouraging. He has the frame of a starting-caliber offensive tackle but does need to get quicker and more fundamentally sound — particularly with his hands and feet — to become a reliable long-term lineman. Paul needs to work on quicker feet and to rely on his feet and not just his size. Check the video below. He can also be over-aggressive. I like that though.

If you view Mims and Paul in a similar vein, then I’d go with Paul as in my original premise. If PFF indicates he needs coaching and might go at 42 it becomes the same level as Paul and with Paul, you don’t have to work as much on the change in footwork. Here is a film review of Patrick Paul, who has more than a 7-foot wing span and he is Athletic. See his film review here (1:34):

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Of course, there are other OTs worthy of consideration. Here are three: Jordan Morgan, Kingsley Suamataia, and Kiran Amegadjie.

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Morgan needs to get stronger, whether he’s at tackle or guard in the NFL, but he has desirable athletic traits with fast hands and feet that bolster his starting-caliber potential. Fast feet is key but training for the footwork at LOT will entail significant coaching.

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Suamataia is a dream prospect to draft and develop somewhere on day two. I worry about him being baptized by fire if drafted in the first round and called upon to start right away. I also like this idea because of HC Andy Reid’s connection with BYU. Projecting a player to go from the FCS level to the NFL level as a starter is tricky, but Amegadjie has the tools and the tape to be a worthwhile investment in the top 50 as a starting-caliber tackle or guard. I do like this idea as well, but here’s his tape from his time in the Big 12. More of a gamble, but his tape looks good (2:30).

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Projecting a player to go from the FCS level to the NFL level as a starter is tricky, but Amegadjie has the tools and the tape to be a worthwhile investment in the top 50 as a starting-caliber tackle or guard. Heaven’s sake: Ivy League? Here’s a breakdown on Kiran Amegadjie (6:35):

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I’ll stop looking into OTs, here. Using just the two positions, OT and WR, I am pressed to select OTs before WRs. I remain a fan of Patrick Paul among all those listed.

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Reasonable Prospect Possibilities

For Pick 32, a WR or a trade-back option

Always difficult to analyze propositions, at least for me, and WRs remains an enigma. If I separate the front end of the group (ie, rated in the top 20, from the rest of the WRs), I think I’d get a tier 2 that has solid players and not much difference between 20 and 40. Right now, I have Ladd McConkey as my dark horse. At the present moment, Adonai Mitchell, a WR out of Texas, fits where K.C. will pick. He is ranked at #30 by PFF. His size and speed makes him very attractive and in this case, I can see that if Mitchell is on the Chiefs Big Board, trading up to select him seems to be something that might be in the cards. Again, using the PFF rankings, here is what I see.

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WR, Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

Thomas offers a good combination of size and speed to push the ball vertically down the sideline, demanding Safeties stay rotated to his side of the field. To truly unlock that kind of threat, he will need to show he can consistently beat press coverage. Offenses that like to push the ball will prioritize what he brings to the table in the top 50.

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WR, Adonai Mitchell, Texas

Mitchell’s fluidity at his size (6-2, 205 lbs.) makes him a tough matchup, especially in the red zone (4.34 – 40). The biggest area of concern I have with him is that I wish he attacked the ball more when it was in the air. If he improves in that category, he has fringe WR1/WR2 abilities.

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WR, Ladd McConkey, Georgia

Don’t expect McConkey to be an “X” jump-ball receiver, but outside of that, it’s hard to imagine him not succeeding in the NFL (6-0, 186, 4.39 – 40). His game is reminiscent of Eddie Royal. Maybe not as fast with long speed, but he has devastating quickness, is good in the return game, and is a strong blocker for his size.

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WR, Troy Franklin, Oregon

Franklin (6-2, 176 lbs. 4.41 – 40) might get lost in the shuffle of a loaded wide receiver class, but he shouldn’t. His smoothness comes from his athletic profile and his confidence in knowing how to win at the position. He needs to continue to get stronger but, overall, is a competitive player who can be a good WR2 for a vertical NFL offense. I am going to cut off looking at WRs with Franklin. There are several great prospects after pick 40. My point is… the look at other WRs becomes more difficult from Franklin on down. However, my Honorable Mention from the PFF ranking is Xavier Worthy.

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Honorable Mention

WR, Xavier Worthy, Texas

Worthy (5-11, 165 lbs. 4.21 – 40) must be identified pre-snap in all situations due to how easily he can take a pass to the house if not accounted for. If he can get stronger and learn to be a better hand fighter with defenders, he can be an impact pass catcher as a WR2/3. I think Worthy deserves to be selected far below #68. However, he’ll be considered by some teams to be a round-one pick.

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End Notes

My proposition from the start begins with the list of items of focus for the draft. I stated that this year I’m not having fun with Mock Drafts as I have had in the past. For me, the Chiefs need to draft another player in the top 100 and the only way to get that is with a trade back. I just don’t think there is a ton of difference between players of the same position group ranked at 20 or so, compared to players ranked in the 40s. This draft is deep in both the OT and WR positions. It’s a “you pick’em” type deal. How the GM and coaching staff look at the attributes of players compared to one another and do those match team needs is the abiding question.

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David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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